Former Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin suggested that next year in Russia, from the point of view of the state of business and population, will be the same as current. He said this in an interview with radio station Business FM.
“Unemployment, maybe even slightly increase,” Kudrin said.
Ex-Minister of Finance noted that the current economic situation in the country, unlike in 2008-2009, characterized by “a serious fall in real incomes”. He predicts that real incomes will fall by almost 7% and salaries by 10% in real terms.
Kudrin also said that the wave of layoffs in the country “for some time will last”. “We have many enterprises until fall of this year thought that will begin growth for a bit, and thus were sent to people in the summer holidays, has suspended production or offered part-time work. But now they realized that the situation does not improve, and begin mass layoffs — here this autumn,” he said.
However, the former Minister suggested that by mid 2016 will begin the slow growth of the economy. “But the growth even in the coming years will be 1.5%, not more, by the standards of Russia still is stagnation”, — he stressed.
Speaking at the St. Petersburg economic forum in June 2015, Kudrin said that Russia is in full crisis, and suggested that the decline of the economy, the Russians will see in the second or third quarter of this year, however, the fourth recession will decrease.
In his speech, the former Minister referred to the “unpleasant features of the crisis”, in particular the devaluation of the ruble. He noted that real wages Russians fell by 10% and real incomes by more than 4%, highlighting that for the year these indicators will deteriorate.
In addition, Kudrin criticized those who send employees on vacation and cancels allowances, believing that “the summer will endure and in the fall will be easier”, highlighting that in the autumn the situation will not change for the better. He also suggested that in the autumn of dismissal in the country will continue.
On 2 October, former Finance Minister suggested that next year the GDP growth may be from 0.5% to minus 1%. Regarding the drop in GDP in 2015, Kudrin said that the forecast remains the same. “In the beginning of the year I said that when the price of oil below 60 dollars [the economic downturn] will be 4%. That’s right,” he said.