The government of the Russian Federation will consider the draft budget for 2016 and macroeconomic forecast up to 2018


MOSCOW, October 8. The government at session will consider the draft Federal budget for 2016, as well as the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in 2016-2018.

Together with them, the Cabinet will consider amendments to the current budget, draft budgets of the Pension Fund, social insurance Fund, Federal compulsory medical insurance Fund in 2016, the draft guidelines for the single state monetary policy for the years 2016-2018.

According to published on Wednesday by the Finance Ministry’s draft Federal budget for next year, the revenues of the Federal budget of the Russian Federation is planned at the level 13,577 trillion rubles, expenses – 15,762 trillion rubles, accordingly, the budget deficit will be at the level of 2,184 trillion rubles, or 2.8% of GDP. The budget projected a GDP of $ 78,673 trillion rubles and the inflation rate not exceeding 6.4 per cent.

Annual budget

The budget for 2016 is fundamentally different from a similar document that was drafted in 2014. Next year, the government draws up the annual budget, not reviewing the forecast 2017-2018. Also for 2016 discards the fiscal rule, according to which the maximum level of expenditure shall be determined based on the average over the previous three years the price of oil. The budget will be submitted to the state Duma later than usual deadline – 25 October instead of 1 October.

As to the macro forecast, according to the materials of the MAYOR (are available), the baseline scenario (laid out in the draft budget) it assumes an average annual price of oil in 2016 at $50 per barrel in 2017 – $52 per barrel in 2018 – $55 per barrel, and the average annual rouble exchange rate – ruble, respectively, 63.3, 63.1 rubles and 62.5 rubles per dollar. With GDP in 2016, is expected to grow 0.7% in 2017, 1.9% in 2018 and 2.4%. Inflation in these years will slow to 6.4%, 6% and 5.1% respectively.

Also, the Cabinet in the documents under consideration within the budget process, will consider the suspension of certain provisions of the Budget code in connection with the adoption of the budget for 2016. As reported yesterday with reference to the materials of the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry proposes to extend to 2016 the transfer of income from the national welfare Fund and Reserve Fund in the budget of the Russian Federation (with the extension of the suspension until February 1, 2017 Budget code about their direction for replenishment of these funds).

It was originally planned that the income of these funds remain in their possession. However, this rule was first suspended in 2010 until February 1, 2014, then double the suspension was extended. Currently the norms are frozen until 1 February 2016.

In addition, the government will consider projects of Federal laws, defining features of profit transfers from the Bank of Russia for the year 2015 in the Federal budget. Earlier it was reported that the increase from 75 to 90% profit share of the Bank of Russia due to the Federal budget, the Finance Ministry in the coming year expects an additional budget of 76 billion roubles.