The dollar dropped to 60,85 of the rouble, the Euro rate dropped to 69,08 ruble. The price of oil is $ 54 dollars per barrel of Brent.
MOSCOW, 9 Oct. Dmitry Mayorov. During the day the ruble rising against the dollar and the Euro is almost stable, demonstrating the strengthening of the bi-currency basket (0.45 euros and 0.55 dollars) for the fifth day in a row.
Oil price is testing the resistance level of $ 54 per barrel of Brent, setting the tone for growth of the ruble.
The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 14.29 MSK decreased by 0.52 ruble — to 60,85 of the rouble, the Euro rate — by 0.14 ruble — to 69,08 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.
Earlier Friday, the dollar and the Euro fell to 60,816 68,841 ruble and ruble — the lowest levels since the end of July and beginning of August respectively.
Consolidation after rapid growth
The ruble has stabilized against the Euro and surged against the dollar on Friday afternoon as part of consolidation after rapid growth in the past four days.
From early morning, the rouble was strengthened by inertia to both reserve currencies on the backdrop of attempts by the cost of oil to reach the area of 54 dollars per barrel of Brent.
Investors with optimism win back the statement of the Secretary General of OPEC Abdullah El-Badri, according to which the demand for oil in 2015 will grow by 1.5 million barrels a day, and in 2016 — 1.3 million barrels per day, which exceeds the previous forecast of the cartel.
As a result, the price of a barrel of Brent came almost to the level 54 of the dollar and the price of WTI for the first time since July, is fixed above psychologically important mark of $ 50.
At the same time in four trading session the dollar from the highs of late last week, lost (to a minimum Friday) more than 5.5 per ruble and Euro — more than 6 rubles. In the end, the main reserve currency has been oversold and overdue for their dollar, say dealers.
Besides, before the weekend, market players can increase the profit from the growth of the ruble as against the military operation of Russia against “Islamic state” in Syria remain geopolitical risks, experts say.
In the end, dollar a day is reduced by a few tens of cents and the Euro is virtually unchanged against the strong dynamics of the European currency on Forex.
Forecasts and recommendations
The fed fears that the recent events in the financial markets and the possible consequences of an economic slowdown in China and some other countries can reduce economic activity in the US, says Vladimir Zotov from the Ural Bank for reconstruction and development, analyzing the materials of timeregular.
“As a result — the dollar weakened against the Euro and commodity currencies. Assuming that oil prices will rise to a value of 55 dollars per barrel, it is in General positive for the ruble, however, we can hardly expect the us dollar below 60 rubles, since bidding may withdraw the Central Bank buying the currency,” he said.
It would be unwise to oppose the General tendency of strengthening of interest to risk that swept global stock and commodity markets, as well as the emerging markets and higher-yielding currencies, says Tom Levinson from the company “Sberbank CIB”. “Nevertheless, we doubt the sustainability of this growth is not due to the improvement in expectations about global growth, and hopes for the preservation of the soft policy of the fed and the ECB on the background of low economic activity,” he said.
“If the pair EUR/USD will take aim at the mark of 60 or fall below this level will increase the likelihood of a resumption of purchases of foreign currency by the CBR. Given the increased probability of interventions, we expect that the strengthening of the ruble will fall short of the growth of quotations, and the price of oil in ruble terms will increase. While the pair EUR/USD is preparing to test the strength of support 60,7,” added Levinson.