The Bank of Russia may revise the forecast on capital outflow in 2015


LIMA, October 10. The Bank of Russia may revise the forecast on capital outflow in 2015 after verification of the data for the third quarter. This was reported to journalists by the Chairman of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina.

“The data that we published, we published as a preliminary, final data is yet to be, they can be refined,” – said Nabiullina.

She confirmed that “according to preliminary information, really, at us in the third quarter inflows of $5.3 billion”. “If this stays in connection with final data on third quarter, we will review /forecast/ balance of payments, but while to speak still early” – has informed the Chairman of the Central Bank.

According to previously published data, the outflow of capital from Russia in the first nine months amounted to 45 billion dollars, but in the third quarter was an inflow of $5.3 billion.

The Ministry of Finance estimates, capital outflow for the full year will be $70-80 billion, according to estimates of the Central Bank’s $85 billion

The Central Bank predicts conservation of the structural deficit of liquidity until the end of 2018

The CBR predicts the preservation of the structural deficit of liquidity until the end of 2018, said Nabiullina.

“If everything will go on according to our scenario, we are at the end of the three year olds will be in the structural liquidity deficit and we won’t have to change tools. This will allow us to use those tools, which are now,” she said. This assessment considers the Finance Ministry plans to spend 2 trillion rubles from the Reserve Fund next year, she said.

The Governor of the Bank of Russia also said that if at the beginning of 2015 the structural deficit of liquidity amounted to 7 trillion rubles, now it dropped to 4 trillion roubles.

Speaking about the likelihood of a sale of international reserves to fulfill the order of the Ministry of Finance to sell foreign currency from sovereign wealth funds, Nabiullina said: “We are not going to spend foreign exchange reserves to withdraw rubles. There are also other instruments to remove excess liquidity. Not necessarily through the sale of gold reserves”.

The structural liquidity deficit of the banking sector occurs when a stable demand from the banks in obtaining liquidity through operations with the Bank of Russia. The surplus is the reverse of the situation is expressed in the need for banks to place funds with the regulator.

The Central Bank will take into account the position of the fed and the situation in China when the decision to enter the foreign exchange market

According to Nabiullina, the CBR will take into account the fed’s decision, the situation in China and other factors affecting the volatility of world markets, when making decisions about entering the foreign exchange market with currency purchases in the reserves.

“(Sachs) large uncertainties on foreign markets, related to the when will the US Federal reserve’s decision on raising rates, this could lead to increased volatility in emerging markets. All are watching how the situation in China, how will behave prices for oil. A lot of factors, so of course we will watch how the situation develops”, – she said, speaking about plans of the regulator on the return on the foreign exchange market.

As expected, the end of the year, the U.S. Federal reserve may announce a rate increase, which remained at a record low last 7 years. This event may lead to increased volatility in the markets especially in developing countries. On the other hand, most analysts believe that the value of currencies of developing countries already includes this risk.