In the afternoon, the Russian currency traded in positive territory on the background of dominating a confident dynamics of the oil market. The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 18.09 Moscow time has decreased on 0,63 ruble — to 61,24 ruble, the Euro — 0.70 ruble — to 69,60 ruble.
MOSCOW, 12 Oct. The ruble against the dollar and Euro in the evening increased, partially losing morning gains amid cheaper oil below $ 52 per barrel Brent.
Verbal interventions of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin and the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina also help the ruble to rise.
The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 18.09 Moscow time has decreased on 0,63 ruble — to 61,24 ruble, the Euro — 0.70 ruble — to 69,60 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.
The ruble remains optimistic
The ruble during the session on Monday traded in positive territory on the background of dominating a confident dynamics of the oil market. Thus, the cost of Brent crude fluctuated mainly in the range of 62-63 per barrel.
The participants of the oil market play on expectations of lower supply of oil on the world market and growth of demand for energy.
Support to rouble was rendered verbal interventions made during the weekend. So, the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin stated that Russian authorities do not intend to withdraw from liberal course in the field of currency regulation and restrict the movement of capital.
The head of the CBR Elvira Nabiullina said that the Bank of Russia does not expect a sharp depreciation of the ruble in the near future and reduce its volatility. While the Central Bank does not expect the shortage of foreign currency liquidity in the Russian market until the end of the year, she added.
Finally, the head of the Central Bank stated that, taking the decision to resume purchases of foreign currency for international reserves (GCR), the regulator will focus on the volatility in the market (for reduction), targets for the ruble to resume these operations at Bank of Russia no.
Thus, the output of dollar rate at the psychologically significant support level of 60 rubles, according to Nabiullina, will not be a reason to start buying the currency in the reserve, and it can ease the rouble bulls to test this level, I guess the dealers.
As a result, the dollar and the Euro during the day was decreased by a few tens of cents, towards the lows of last week.
However, at the end of the day the price of oil slid down and fell below 52 dollars per barrel of Brent. Discussion topics the abolition of sanctions against Iran and the ban on oil exports from the United States create pressure on the market of “black gold”.
It has pressed night on the ruble. However, it continues to trade in positive territory against the dollar and Euro, partially losing the morning’s achievement, when he rose in the area of highs last week, which peaks with the summer.
Forecasts and recommendations
Options for further developments on the currency market of the Russian Federation two: either the oil is stabilized in the range of 51 to 53 dollars per barrel, and then there will be correction of the ruble down, or after the Monday lull the barrel “blows” in the region of $ 56, says Dmitry Gurkovsky from RoboForex.
“The U.S. currency will potorguemsya Tuesday in the range of 61-62 ruble and Euro will remain in the corridor 68-70 roubles,” he added.
Now oil prices seeking new equilibrium position, appreciated Gleb market pulse of the company Profit Group. “If in September we are used to trading in the region of 47 to 50 dollars per barrel, now the range may become wider (47-54 dollar) or just move up to 50-54 dollars,” he said.
“Nobody thinks to talk about sustainable growth of the energy market. Problems in China, the lifting of the sanctions on Iran and a slowdown in global GDP growth amid rising dollar will not let prices rise too much. This means that the dollar against the ruble is unlikely to drop below 60,” said market pulse.