Prediction: the Russian stock market and rouble in the beginning of the day will decrease


Oleg Steps from the company’s “solid” considers that the negative influence of external factors, and the senior economist of Bank “Globex” Alexey Balashov, that negativity will add a report on the MH17 disaster.

MOSCOW, 13 Oct. The share market of the Russian Federation and the ruble in the beginning of the day will be reduced to moderately negative background, analysts believe.

During the day, analysts do not exclude the volatility in the market related with the expected release of the report on the crash of the Boeing MH17, and with the release of macroeconomic data and earnings reports of the largest foreign companies.

Under pressure of oil and the external background

The impact of the key external factors that have a significant impact on the behavior of the Russian financial market, on Tuesday early in the day develops moderately negative, estimates Oleg Steps from “solid”.

Another “fly in the ointment” is likely to add a report on the MH17 disaster, says senior economist of Bank “Globex” Alexey Balashov.

This morning China released data on balance of foreign trade data on imports in General were much weaker than expected, but oil imports in September rose more than 8% (compared to August), which compensates for the fears associated with the increased production by OPEC countries, says the analyst of investment “OLMA” Anton Startsev.

“During the day, it is possible increased volatility on stock indices is expected large flow of statistics and corporate reports. On the foreign exchange market, from the standpoint of technical analysis, the currency markets-the Euro found support near 100-day moving average — the decline was halted, but the signals to significant movements yet,” he commented.

After the fall in oil prices on Monday, the situation for buyers Brent is not critical, the analyst of Alpari Vladislav Antonov. The bulls should be afraid of the breakout of the level of 48.5 dollars per barrel, he said.

If rate cut Brent below 48.5 dollar Russian ruble will come under renewed intense pressure, he believes.

“The critical level for the U.S. currency — 65 roubles, for Euro 72 rubles. The growth of ruble pairs above these values will prevent the strengthening of the ruble before the new year. While Brent is trading above the level of 48.5 dollars per barrel, the target area for sellers of the dollar remains at levels 59-60 rubles. For Brent, the resistance is at the level of EUR 54.15 to the dollar, he says.

Forecasts

The opening of the Russian share market on Tuesday is expected with the decrease of the MICEX and RTS indexes. In the context of deteriorating external background MICEX index will continue emerged yesterday correction to growth and may again fall below the psychological mark of 1700 points, said Steps of the company’s “solid”. The RTS index will show a weaker momentum due to the expected strengthening of positions of dollar against the ruble, he adds.

It is expected the opening of the market with insignificant deviation on the MICEX index, near the mark of 1710 points, said Vitaly Manzhos from the Bank “Education”. Immediate focus will be the 1700, 1690 points, significant resistance will make a mark 1730, 1740 points, he adds.

“Probably after the neutral start of trading, the MICEX index will move in consolidation mode near the opening level. This contributes to ambiguous external background. Additionally, that evening the deterioration in sentiment in the oil market will restrain the activity of players on increase” — says the analyst.

In the first half of the day and the MICEX index and the national currency is waiting for a continuation of yesterday’s correction, says Timur Nigmatullin of “Finam”.

External factors

U.S. stock indexes on Monday rose slightly before waiting for the reports of a number of large companies.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.28% to 17131,86 point, high-tech NASDAQ — on 0,17%, to 4838,64 points, the index of wide market S&P 500 — on 0,13%, to 2017,46 item.

Investors are waiting for quarterly reports banks such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup.

Net profit of U.S. aluminum giant Alcoa for the third quarter decreased more than three times — up to 44 million dollars. Profit per share amounted to $ 0.02 vs. 0.12 per dollar in the third quarter of 2014, being below the analysts ‘ forecasts, who had expected the rate to $ 0.14 dollar.

Stock futures US the morning was reduced to 0.15-0.2%. Asia stocks were down 0.23-1,11% for most indexes. The price of oil hovers around 50,63 dollars per barrel mark Brent. The Euro is 1,1367 1,1358 of the dollar against the dollar at the previous auction.

The results of the previous auctions on the Russian market

The Russian stock market after a five-day rise on Monday tumbled down amid overbought local market, closing short positions, as well as the decline in oil prices in the second half of the trading day.

The MICEX index to closing has decreased on 1,03% — to 1710,6 points, RTS — on 1,08% — to 876,42 item.

The dollar calculations “tomorrow” on the basis of currency trading Monday rose by 40 cents to 62,28 ruble, Euro 39 cents to 70,69 ruble.