Chief economist at Saxo Bank Steen Jakobsen, presenting macroeconomic forecast, noted that the volatility of the oil market next year will decline, which will stabilize the ruble.
MOSCOW, 14 Oct. Dmitry Mayorov. The volatility of the oil market next year will decline, which stabilizes the exchange rate, and external factors, overall, will be more favorable for Russia in 2016, said chief economist at Saxo Bank Steen Jakobsen, presenting macroeconomic forecast.
This will help to demonstrate the growth of Russian GDP by 0.3% next year after an expected decline in 2015 of 3.7%.
Commodity markets should improve in the final quarter of 2015, provided that the offer is reduced, said head of trading strategies in the commodities market Saxo Bank OLE Hansen. “Although we do not expect further decline in commodity markets, we also do not believe in a quick recovery of prices in the coming months as oversupply in the commodity sector has been declining very slowly,” he said.
Prices usually recover much more slowly after the recession caused by the imbalance at the sentence level than on the level of demand, as manufacturers often try to close the gap in incomes by increasing production in any way possible. The producers are developing countries, whose currencies have depreciated have been partially protected by the devaluation from the fall of raw material prices, experts say.
“The current cycle of falling prices in commodity markets is different from what we saw during the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, when the deep, strong, but short-term recession caused a sharp decline in demand, which subsequently recovered pretty quickly,” says Hansen.
The process of restoring balance in commodity markets has already begun. In the energy sector the pace of oil production in the U.S. slowed, and the cost of fuel should stimulate the growth of the global economy and demand.
“The way for the restoration of the oil market will be long, and therefore, the potential for price increases for the remainder of the year will be limited to 53 dollars per barrel of oil WTI and us $ 55 per barrel of oil” — said Hansen.
Next year the average range of fluctuations in the prices of grade Brent will be 45-60 dollars per barrel, although the rate could jump to $ 70 per barrel, rated Jacobsen.
The ruble will preserve correlation with oil
The correlation of the ruble with oil prices in recent weeks, looks restored, despite the fact that the so-called prize for geopolitics continues to be felt in the dynamics of exchange rate of the Russian currency, said the trader Saxo Bank in Central and Eastern Europe Kiril Samyshkin.
“In the case of higher oil prices, the ruble will demonstrate a natural fortification. However, neither the regulator facing a budget deficit, especially in regions or exporters that benefit by reducing internal costs will not be interested in the strengthening of the ruble,” he said.
“The Central Bank, most likely, is using this opportunity to replenish FX reserves by buying dollars and euros on the open market. It if and will not break the correlation with oil completely, she will change her degree,” said Samyshkin.
With stable oil in 2016 the dollar will not fluctuate too widely for a long time and is unlikely to leave the range of 55-60 rubles, says Jacobsen.
The effect of bases will help macroeconomics
The low base effect in 2015 will allow next year the Russian economy to show weak plus, according to experts Saxo Bank.
So, according to experts, Russia’s GDP in 2016 will grow by 0.3% to 77,723 trillion rubles after the Bank’s experts expect the decline in 2015 is 3.7%.
The unemployment rate is estimated to rise to 6.5% is expected in 2015 is 6.2%. The rate of growth of consumer prices will decrease to 8% is expected in 2015 to 11.5%, according to Saxo Bank.
Export of the Russian Federation in 2016 is estimated to grow by 6% after expected in 2015 the collapse of 25%, import — by 2% after a corresponding fall of 35%, predicted in Saxo Bank.