The beginning of October of the tax period increased the demand for rubles, which is reflected in the growth rates. The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 19.55 Moscow time decreased to 62,83 of the ruble, the Euro grew to 71.90 ruble.
MOSCOW, 14 Oct. Dmitry Mayorov. The ruble against the dollar in the evening increased, slightly decreasing by Euro, in the scope of consolidation on the background of attempts oil to stay near $ 49 per barrel Brent.
In addition, the beginning of October of the tax period increased the demand for rubles, which resulted in growth rates in the market of rouble loans.
The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 19.55 Moscow time has decreased on 0,21 ruble — to 62,83 of the ruble, the Euro grew by 0.06 ruble — to 71,90 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.
Consolidation of the ruble
The ruble during the session on Wednesday tried to stabilize at the background of the uncertain dynamics of the oil market.
Market players now appreciate oil data OPEC crude oil production, as well as the return of Iranian oil to the world market.
The oil countries cartel increased by 0.11 million barrels per day, up to 31,57 million barrels, which further exceeds the stated OPEC quota production of 30 million barrels per day.
The Iranian Parliament, according to media reports, was endorsed on Tuesday a bill to implement the agreement with the “six” of international mediators on the nuclear program of the country. The agreement on the lifting of the sanctions on Iran will open the way for increased oil production in the country to 3.6 million barrels per day.
In addition, investors are still reacting to Tuesday’s report from the International energy Agency. According to the report, growth in world oil demand in 2015 will accelerate to five-year high of 1.8 million barrels per day, and in 2016 the growth will slow to 1.2 million barrels per day.
Lastly, the weak macroeconomic statistics of China in September adds negativity to the markets of risky assets (oil and ruble).
Geopolitical background remains neutral for the ruble on the background of “digesting” the market reports on the collapse of the Malaysian Boeing in Eastern Ukraine last summer, and reports of intensified fighting in Syria.
Support to rouble has started in the middle of the month tax period, when traditionally increases the demand for ruble liquidity. So, the MosPrime rate for overnight loans again fixed above the level of the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and on Wednesday was 11,58% per annum.
In the end, dollar and Euro after a substantial (for a few rubles) meltdown last week trying to stabilize this week. After Bouncing upwards on Monday and Tuesday the main reserve currency on Wednesday evening poorly to the change. Overall, the bi-currency basket (0.55 dollars and 0.45 euros) to the current time with offset slightly less than half of the decline last week.
Forecasts and recommendations
Now, a little alarming cost of oil in ruble terms, said Ivan Kopeikin from “BCS Express”. This indicator fell in the area of 3100 rubles per barrel, which is practically the lower bound of the medium-term channel and talks about possible weak dynamics of the Russian currency in relation to oil in the near future, he said.
“Positive development for the ruble should also highlight the beginning of the tax period in the country. The pair is now the “dollar-ruble” is traded near strong resistance around 63. Therefore, given the short-term downward trend, the likelihood of a resumption of decline are quite high,” — said Kopeikin.
Traders should consider the possibility of rise in price of a pair of ” $ ” to 63.3, while the “Euro-ruble” — to 72.3 during the day, said Mikhail Krylov from the IR “Golden Hills — Capital AM.
“The balance of risks shifted in the direction of growth of the U.S. currency because of the expected reduction in production in America at a rate of about 100 thousand barrels per month, along with held the actual folding of shale gas projects will be compensated by increased production in Russia and Iran for another six months”, — he believes.