Next week, analysts expect the MICEX and RTS indexes of 2.1% and 2.8%, respectively. The price of Brent crude oil is expected to rise to 51.5 per barrel, and the ruble relative to the dollar will increase by 79 cents, as against € 94 kopecks.
MOSCOW, 16 Oct. Dmitry Mayorov, Elena Likova. Analysts of investment companies and banks expected next week the market growth of the Russian stock and the ruble against the Euro and the dollar, according to data of the survey conducted.
In line with the consensus forecast, based on expectations of analysts, indexes MICEX and RTS per week will increase by 2.1% and 2.8%, respectively. The price of Brent crude oil will rise by $ 2 to 51.5 per barrel, and the Euro-dollar exchange rate will remain approximately 1,13 dollar. The ruble against the dollar will increase by 79 cents, as against € 94 pennies, expect analysts.
Wednesday will be published statistics in China, among which the most important will be data on GDP for the third quarter of 2015, as well as industrial production, reminds the analyst of IK “Veles Capital” Alexander Kostyukov. “While statistics may expand the markets both up and down. Pressure can be and commodity prices,” he said.
The performance of the Chinese economy may be better than expected, that would just encourage speculators earlier in the week, says Anna Kokoreva of “Alpari”. China is the second oil consumer in the world after USA, therefore the state of the economy of China affects the quote, she explains.
A new week begins in financial markets with a high probability will be moderately positive, believes Sergey Yarkoev of “RIA Rating”. The rise of emerging markets will be supported by the preservation of US interest rates and the expectation of strengthening incentive policies from the ECB, he says.
“The positive to the Russian market and will add the cost of oil, which, according to our expectations, by the end of the week will be fixed at 52 dollars per barrel of Brent in the background good for a “black gold” statistics for the United States and in anticipation of the meeting of the countries-manufacturers of oil at the end of the week,” he said.
The renewed drop in the drilling makes further reduction in production in the U.S. is inevitable, in October average daily production in the U.S. may for the first time in 7 years to demonstrate the reduction in annual terms, said Kostyukov. “So the prospect of the oil must not only confidently to gain a foothold above the level of 50 dollars per barrel, but also and to start growth,” the analyst believes.
External background is neutral, among the important news that will affect the markets next week, it is possible to allocate a meeting of OPEC with the countries-producers outside the cartel, which will be held on October 21, Kokoreva notes.
“We believe that for an emergency OPEC meeting representatives of the countries earners will Express its concern regarding the low prices for “black gold” that will be interpreted by investors as the probability of changing the quota for a scheduled meeting of the cartel on 4 December 2015″, — says the interlocutor.
Last year the cartel did not take active attempts to influence oil prices, says Roman Tkachuk from “Pragmatics”. “Maybe it will happen now. We expect oil prices in the coming weeks will continue the recovery,” he said.
For the dynamics of the world markets is also an important outcome of the ECB meeting on 22 October (in the comment part to stimulate the economy) and quarterly reports international corporations (until they are mixed). At the end of the week, the market activities may decrease in anticipation of the fed meeting on October 28.
The movement of indices
Last week, the MICEX index attempted to breakout of the upper boundary of the sideways corridor in which the market is trading in the spring of this year, said managing the network of the Bank “BCS Premier” Sergei Danilov. To gain a foothold above the level of 1740 did not work — until we can speak only about a “false flat”, he adds.
“Trading volumes are relatively low, so confidently talk about the goals of permutation in the direction indicated previously calculated reference points on 1795-1810 still early,” said Danilov.
Although the Russian stock market ahead of several events (current levels on key indexes correspond to higher crude oil), the growth phase will last, says Evgeny Loktionov from PSB. “We see its purpose in the area of our target for this year (1770-1800). However, oil quotes need to go to area 52 to 57 dollars per barrel, while the pair dollar-ruble — to go below 60 rubles,” he says.
The Russian market on the MICEX index will reach the level at 1,760 points, according to Arkaev of “RIA Rating”.
“Our baseline forecast assumes a market growth of 3-4% at least in the first half of the week. The main driver is good reporting of the American banks. Expectations are growing that the fed still will not raise its key interest rate at the next meeting,” believes Georgy Vashchenko of “freedom Finance”.
A good sign was the attempt of the MICEX index to enter from the wide side of the corridor 1570-1730 points, after on Thursday, the index hit a new high in March 6, he said. If the forecast is justified, the aim of the index at the end of the week will be range 1770-1800 points, says the analyst.
In case, if you implement the correction scenario, the likely rollback of the MICEX index to the level 1690-1700 points, he adds.
If the oil market does come the positive, the consequence will be the strengthening of the ruble and the RTS index, says Kokoreva of “Alpari”.
The ruble will remain in force
The ruble strengthened to the level of 60.5 rubles per dollar, supporting additional stimulus to oil will be the factor of the tax period, say analysts at RIA Rating.
The ruble temporarily weakened correlation with the level of oil prices that could be caused by the tax period started, said Vladimir yevstifeev of Bank Zenit.
A barrel of Brent in rubles is worth less than 3,000 rubles, the lowest value for the last time, and about 10% below the level that can be considered the equilibrium for the Russian budget and oil companies, said Georgy Vashchenko from IR “freedom Finance”.
“This situation will not last long, and the level of 59-60 per us dollar when the price of oil at around 50 dollars per barrel will be strong support for the U.S. currency. The benchmark for the week: the 60-63 range for USD-USD”, he added.
For those who have decided to hold funds in dollars, is there a good time for a stepwise formation of long positions on the currency, says Sergey Danilov from the Bank “BCS Prime”.
The rouble now looks even slightly overbought relative to the current level of prices for “black gold,” he added.
Better than the market in these conditions will look the company’s oil and gas and metallurgical sectors, believes Sergey Yarkoev of “RIA Rating”.
And Georgy Vashchenko of “freedom Finance”, in contrast, believes that better market will, Bank paper, worse than the market — shares of oil and gas and metallurgical sectors. “However, all these sectors can end the week in positive territory,” he adds.
“From trade ideas we are still allocated in the first place, the banking sector, expecting that the Bank will be able to test the next resistance zone (93-95 RUB) and VTB — will be above 8 cents,” says Loktionov from PSB.
From “chips” that can show a decent (though catching-up) growth, it recommends to pay attention to Gazprom and individual liquid securities of the power industry.
“We also continue to expect to achieve quotes of LUKOIL and “Norilsk Nickel” our target levels in 2500 and 10,5-11 thousand rubles, respectively. Waiting for the rally in long-term attractive the shares of “RUSAL”, if stats on China will not disappoint. And fear a correction in the strongly superheated shares of “Aeroflot”, — he comments.
Next week publish the financial statements of Severstal, “inter RAO”, “Magnet” and X5 Retail Group, against this background, a possible increase in the volatility of the stock of these companies, says Kokoreva of “Alpari”.