Alternatives to Russian gas, Ankara has in fact not, and Europe nourishes in vain hopes that it will be able to reduce its gas imports from Russia by transit through Turkey.
MOSCOW, 18 Oct –. Despite sometimes harsh rhetoric of the Turkish authorities, threatening to review cooperation with Moscow on key energy projects, Turkey is unlikely to abandon Russian energy, writes Foreign Affairs.
At first glance, Ankara could become a major gas hub between Europe, the Middle East and the Caspian region, but in reality, according to Foreign Affairs, the prerequisites for this.
As writes the edition, because of the peculiarities of state regulation in Turkey is not developed the liquefied natural gas market, gas storage is too small, and terminals for LNG are only two. While two thirds of gas imports of Turkey goes to Russia and to diversify supply is not so simple.
Although Turkey and Azerbaijan started the construction of TRANS-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP), according to analysts, the cost of transportation of Azerbaijani gas will eventually prove to be more expensive than Russian. Another supplier would be Iran, but he is in need for energy for industrialization and can export only a minor share. To supply gas via TANAP proposed Turkmenistan, but it will not be easy due to the large number of contracts with China. This option is complicated by disputes about the legal status of the Caspian sea.
Thus, according to Foreign Affairs, in the West in vain hope that the geopolitical role of Turkey will increase and the country will become “a bulwark against an assertive Russia’s energy strategy”. “Non-competitive market environment, low regulated domestic gas prices and other challenges are sobering,” reads the article.
“Ankara is simply no means by which to encourage competition, to influence Russia, to benefit from a geographically favorable position and become an important bridge to transport Caspian gas to Europe”, — says the publication. In this regard, Turkey will hardly be able to reinforce its geostrategic role through energy. “This is good news for Russia and not very good for the West,” writes Foreign Affairs.