For Monday, the Russian currency was under pressure due to weak dynamics of the oil market. The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 18.28 GMT increased by 0.94 ruble — to 62,22 of the rouble, the Euro rate is 0.85 ruble — to 70,45 ruble.
MOSCOW, 19 Oct. The ruble against the dollar and Euro in the evening was actively declined due to cheaper oil below 49 dollars per barrel of Brent from falling interest risk on the background of weak statistics on China.
Verbal intervention has not helped the ruble to hold the position.
The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 18.28 GMT increased by 0.94 ruble — to 62,22 of the rouble, the Euro rate is 0.85 ruble — to 70,45 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.
The ruble during the session on Monday remained under pressure from weak dynamics of the oil market. Thus, the failure of oil to confidently gain a foothold on the psychologically important mark of $ 50 per barrel of Brent has led to its slide below $ 49 amid weak macroeconomic statistics on China.
The growth of China’s GDP in the third quarter in annual terms it stood at 6.9% vs. 6.8%. Although the rate was slightly better than expectations, the growth of the economy still shows the slowest pace since 2009. And the country’s industrial production in September rose yoy by 5.7% against the forecast of 6%. In August the growth was of 6.1%.
Some support for the ruble in the first half of the day had expectations of the upcoming year-end of expenditure of the Ministry of Finance. So, the head of the Ministry Anton Siluanov said that his Department in 2015 will spend 2,62 billion rubles from the Reserve Fund. So far in 2015 from the reserves, the Finance Ministry has spent about 1.3 trillion rubles, that is, there are still about 1.3 trillion. To obtain this amount, the Ministry of Finance is expected to convert approximately $ 20 billion.
However, they will most likely be converted inside the Central Bank, and such operation will not affect the rouble exchange rate, analysts say.
The statement of the head of the Ministry of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev about the Agency Fitch rated countries is also not very helpful Kuru ruble. He noted that the revision of the credit rating of Russia towards increase can be expected in 2016.
In the end, dollar and Euro in the evening grew within 1 ruble, being fixed above 62 rubles and 70 rubles respectively.
Forecasts and recommendations
Despite today’s decline, the ruble, in General, in recent days, demonstrates an enviable stability: when the price of oil below 50 dollars the pair dollar/ruble is trading around 62 rubles, that is almost where traded higher oil price to 54 dollars, assessed Yuri Kravchenko from IK “Veles Capital”.
“The interest in domestic currency may be due to increased expectations of a further reduction in the key rate of the Central Bank, in anticipation of which the participants aspire to have time to buy ruble assets (previously sold for rubles currency) prior to the reduction of yields”, he added.
The pair dollar/ruble is now getting close to a strong resistance in the area of 62,2, appreciated Ivan Kopeikin from “BCS Express”.
“Break of this level could accelerate the rise. However, oil still has a certain growth potential, and therefore, can support the ruble. Therefore, the chances of bulls and bears on USD/RUB is now almost equal to that generally does not involve active actions”, — he added.