Ruble in the evening went to plus after oil, and thanks to taxes

Ruble in the evening went to plus after oil, and thanks to taxes


The Russian currency during the day showed mixed fluctuations following the oil market. The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 19.28 GMT decreased by 0.26 ruble — to 61,99 of the rouble, the Euro rate — by 0.12 ruble — to 70,38 ruble.

MOSCOW, 20 Oct. The ruble against the dollar and Euro in the evening was increased by the background growth oil in the area is 49 dollars per barrel of Brent.

Tax period helps to strengthen the ruble, which resulted in a reduction in the cost of Brent crude oil in the region of 3 thousand rubles from 3.1-3.2 thousand in the previous weeks.

The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 19.28 GMT decreased by 0.26 ruble — to 61,99 of the rouble, the Euro rate — by 0.12 ruble — to 70,38 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.

Taxes help the ruble

The ruble during the session on Tuesday showed multidirectional vibrations, following the dynamics of the oil market.

So, in the morning, the ruble remained under pressure from the oil market, the cost of which amounted to nearly 48 dollars, supporting a corrective weakening of the ruble after strengthening at the end of last week.

But then the oil, rebounding from a specified local bottom, tried to adjust up, which supported the ruble.

Evening oil market strengthened on speculation about the upcoming meeting of representatives of Russia and OPEC. Energy Minister Alexander Novak has previously stated that the country is ready to participate in consultations with the countries-members of the cartel on market situation. He also expressed readiness to discuss the situation with countries outside the cartel.

As a result, the oil is returned to the mark of 49 dollars per barrel of Brent. However, the price of a barrel in rubles now close to a minimum in recent weeks — about 3 thousand roubles. Such a high rate of the ruble against oil perhaps associated with sales of foreign currency by exporters in the preparation for the tax period.

Forecasts and recommendations

The position of the domestic currency supported the tax payments and the expectations of reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank, in anticipation of which the market players are looking to time to buy ruble-denominated assets (by selling the currency for this) to reduce the yields thereon, assessed Yuri Kravchenko from IK “Veles Capital”.

“In these conditions until the end of the month the ruble remain all chances to strengthen to 60 against the us currency,” he said.

The developments around the policies of the US Federal reserve (base rate) has little effect on the ruble, outflow of portfolio investors from the Russian market over the last eighteen months may have provided some immunity ruble to normal fluctuations in demand for risk, which defines the currencies of emerging markets, estimate analysts “Sberbank CIB”.

“Moreover, if emerging market currencies will start to rise, the Bank of Russia may resume intervention, buying foreign currency to prevent the ruble’s strengthening in accordance with the dynamics of its analogues. More significant for ruble factor is, of course, the dynamics of oil prices”, — experts say.

“Quotes of Brent towards the end of the year can recover. Due to the position of fed the situation, suggesting the possibility of a weakening dollar allows the possibility that the USD/USD at the end of the year would be below 65. At the same time, at this stage we believe that the pair EUR/USD is unlikely to fall below $ 60,” believe “Sberbank CIB”.