Moscow. October 20. Advertising Siller Vi expects to reduce TV advertising market by 17% in 2015, but forecasts that the decline will cease in 2016.
“At the moment we see that prices have stabilized and the overall situation calmed down,” said Vi CEO Sergey Vasiliev at the conference Dentsu Aegis Network Thursday.
According to him, the Vi now expects a market decline by 17% by the end of 2015, while in December 2014 were waiting for the fall by 25-30%.
Assessment Vi, in October the market of TV advertising will fall by 7% after falling 10% in September, 14% in August and 21% in July. The forecast for November is -6%. In January the fall was 25%.
“The advertising market in General overreacted. It was not so bad,” said Vasiliev.
Feature of 2015 were short (monthly and quarterly) contracts. As a result autumn, advertisers are faced with a shortage of inventory (advertising time) on channels and higher prices. “That’s a side effect of reinsurance activity”, – said Vasilyev.
The forecast of dynamics of the TV advertising market by 2016 at Vi no, but Siller is focused on the parameters close to the estimate of the General Director “Gazprom-holding Media” Dmitry Chernyshenko (predicted market growth of 3% in 2016). According to Vasileva, in the next year, the market can show the dynamics of the “zero, a little bit up.”
Negative market factors include the lack of prerequisites for the growth of the economy, the continued fall in real incomes, negative investment climate and regulatory initiatives. Positive factors – “positive momentum” TV advertising market in the second half of 2015, the current stabilization of the ruble, the emergence of new local brands and the continued importance of television as the main advertising medium, said Vasiliev.
CEO of CTC Media Juliana Slaschova previously predicted that the market for TV advertising this year will fall by 20%, and the dynamics of the advertising revenue of the company will be at the level of the market. Next year the market may show the dynamics of 0-1,5%, she said.