Analysts: stocks “Transaero” can grow

Analysts: stocks “Transaero” can grow


After the announcement of the takeover bid “Transaero” S7 shareholders shares close to bankruptcy of the company soared to the level to 19.5 rubles. Now the prices remain close to the highs since the beginning of October.

MOSCOW, 21 Oct. Shares standing on the verge of bankruptcy of airline “Transaero” can grow in the next few days, if history with the purchase of a shareholder of S7 group, Vladislav Filev at least 51% of actions “Transaero” will continue in a positive way, analysts say.

On Tuesday evening it became known that the group shareholder of S7 airlines Vladislav Filev has signed an agreement to purchase not less than 51% of actions “Transaero”. This message has caused the current rally shares “Transaero”. Moscow exchange was several times extended the corridor, resulting in the shares of the carrier jumped 187%, to 19.5 rubles.

After the next raising to 19.5 per ruble of proposals for sale of actions “Transaero” was not. However, after the speech of the first Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov has declared that law enforcement bodies of the Russian Federation is to look at the situation with Transaero as the second largest Russian airline reached to this state — speculators began to take profits.

However, the speculative demand remains high and prices remain close to the highs since the beginning of October (19.5 per ruble), say traders.

To 15.01 UTC + action “Transaero” has grown on 159,71% to 17,66 in the ruble, the shares of “Aeroflot” has decreased on 4,24%, the MICEX index also showed a decrease of 0.95%.

A sharp rise of shares of “Transaero”

Players of the Russian stock market earlier almost put an end to “Transaero”, and now there is a buyer, respectively, the share price of the carrier returns to the levels that were before the fall, says head of analytical Department at “Zerich capital Management” Nikolay Podlevskikh.

“On Wednesday morning there were reports that the controlling stake of “Transaero” to buy the company’s shareholders S7, it dramatically reduces the risks of bankruptcy of the carrier. Just because these risks previously, “Transaero” has dropped to 5 cents per share — an historic low,” — says a leading analyst of investment “OLMA” Anton Startsev.

Such a strong movement in the environment is due to the fact that the share traded as paper is close to bankruptcy, he adds.

Will you continue the growth

“Rosaviatsia has recognized “Transaero” incompetent and cancelled the AOC of the airline “Transaero” since October 26. In addition, the Agency has not confirmed plans for the acquisition of carrier’s company S7″, notes podlevskih.

We very much tied to our regulators, in this case, the Federal air transport Agency, so depending on what the news are going to act and behave the shares, he says.

“If the regulator will say that gives a nod to the company’s operations, then perhaps the action even a little older. But if this song is already earned, and will be dividing Transaero to pieces, they again will fall,” says Podlevskikh.

If the deal with S7 finally confirmed, increase share of “Transaero” may continue, in the future dynamics of prices will depend on plans for new shareholders to the development of “Transaero” and solving its debt problems, says of the Elders of investment “OLMA”.

Also still a question — whether shareholders are to develop S7, Transaero as a separate company or will some consolidation with the S7 business, he pays attention.

“And the next question is, if this will be consolidation, whether it will be conducted only at the operational level or also at the level of the share capital. While these are open questions,” the expert summarizes.

In turn analysts of BCS I suspect that the purpose of the transaction is more improved negotiating positions S7 in the struggle for assets “Transaero”, and not an attempt to rescue the struggling airline. “However, the increased uncertainty could put pressure on Aeroflot — they add.