The pressure on the Russian currency renders the deterioration in emerging markets. The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 16.19 MSK grew by 0.96 ruble — to 63,08 of the ruble, the Euro grew by 1.07 ruble — to 71,59 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.
MOSCOW, 21 Oct. The ruble in the first half of trading fell due to the weakening of the oil market below $ 48 a barrel Brent.
The deterioration in emerging markets has put pressure on risky assets, including the rouble, dealers say.
The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 16.19 MSK grew by 0.96 ruble — to 63,08 of the ruble, the Euro grew by 1.07 ruble — to 71,59 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.
Ruble slides to one-week lows
Courses of the ruble against the dollar and the Euro on Wednesday afternoon declined steadily, losing about 1 RUB to both main reserve currencies, and falling to week lows.
The main reason was the weak dynamics of oil market that tests the level of 48 USD per barrel of Brent and has already dropped below it for the first time since early October.
Pressure on the market of “black gold” have a data API (American petroleum Institute) about the growth of commercial stocks in the country last week by 7.1 million barrels — up to 473 million barrels, the forecast increase is only 3.9 million barrels.
The U.S. Department of energy later Wednesday will release statistics on commercial oil stocks (ex strategic reserve) for the week ended October 16. According to the consensus forecast of analysts had increased to 3,867 million barrels — up to 472,46 million. A week earlier, the oil reserves in the U.S. rose by 7.6 million barrels, to 468,6 million barrels.
The fact that the ruble has fallen only to the weekly lows, and the oil — for nearly three weeks, suggests that the ruble in the last days to feel quite confident. As a result, the price of a barrel of Brent fell from 3.1 to 3.2 thousand to about 3 thousand current, also demonstrating the stability of the rouble against the oil.
In the end, dollar and Euro has risen by about 1 ruble, updating the weekly maximum.
Forecasts and recommendations
Still no news from Vienna, where today was held in OPEC member countries and oil producers outside the cartel, says Anna Bodrova from the company “Alpari”. “At the moment the supply of oil on the world market significantly exceeds demand by nearly 2 million barrels per day. The main issue on the agenda is the pricing, it might be asked to work to increase the cost of the barrel,” she added.
“Despite the intraday fluctuations, the rouble remains fairly stable and confident. Based on the current cost of a barrel, the dollar should now cost about 64 rubles. The fall of a barrel to 47,50-48 dollars is able to divert the American currency in the area is 66 rubles. It is, however, to remember that this is only one scenario of the market,” Bodrova added.
The positive dynamics of the black gold, coupled with the approaching peak of tax payments in Russia, when traditionally increases the demand for ruble liquidity, it is able to trigger the movement of the pair USD/USD to the level of 61.6 and, further, to 60,9 appreciated Irina Rogova of the Forex Club group of companies.