Experts: the rise of shares of “Transaero” caused by small speculators, and large investors


MOSCOW, October 21. The sharp growth of actions “Transaero” in the course of trading on the Moscow exchange caused by small speculators, and large investors, experts say. In their view, in the current situation, increasing the price of the airline are unlikely to be sustainable and can result in rapid decline.

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Action “Transaero” has increased to 187% after buying S7 51% stake in the company

Source: Transaero will continue its activities after the purchase of its shares by a co-owner S7

The MAYOR: at “Transaero” there is a real chance of survival

Shares of Transaero airlines soared by 187% (13.30 GMT) and reached to 19.5 rubles per share. At the very beginning of trading session of a paper carrier jumped by 39.85%.

A positive factor for papers “Transaero” became the message that the General Director of S7 airlines Vladislav Filev on Tuesday night acquired not less than 51% of the shares of the carrier Alexander Pleshakova, who is the largest shareholder of the airline. Filev said that the shareholders “Transaero” has a plan for the normalization of relations with creditors, however, refused to disclose details. He also noted that new shareholders by all means try to avoid the bankruptcy of the airline. The Federal air transport Agency and the transport Ministry has yet to confirm details of the transaction.

The reaction of market participants is clear, the speculators got some hope and decided to play that is why there was such a sharp share price, says senior Manager for research and analysis of industries and capital markets PSB Ilya Frolov. “But the question, as for the long term. Because, if you look at the review of the Federal air transport Agency, it becomes clear that the decision to revoke licenses from October 26 taken, and chance of survival we see. It is possible that this growth will be very short” – said the expert.

The head of Rosaviatsiya Alexander Neradko said the air operator certificate of airline “Transaero” cancelled from 26 October this year due to the deterioration of its financial condition that affect aviation safety. And revoked the certificate in accordance with the rules, can not be restored, he added.

Technical factors give small speculators

Even in its heyday, “Transaero” was a small company on the MICEX, draws the attention of the chief trader “Renaissance Capital” Alex Bachurin. “It is not included in either index. Even in the RTS index is not included and has never been, not to mention international indexes,” said he.

Paper companies are increasing the morning. Thus, the Moscow exchange has repeatedly raised the upper limit of the company’s share price – 12 rubles., then up to 14.5 rubles. and as of 13.00 GMT to 19.5 rubles According to the senior portfolio Manager of “management Capital” Vadim Bit – Avragim, each time you reach this price limit is a discrete auction.

“In fact, today the price immediately limited by a price limit exchange, and then trading is temporarily suspended “, – adds Ilya Frolov from PSB.

Since the start of trading and as of 13: 30 MSK trading volume of the shares of Transaero amounted to 34.5 mln, while the number of deals reached 1,74 thousand For the first half hour of trading volume amounted to 7 million rubles.

According to Vadim Bit-Avragim of “UK Capital”, today’s volumes are very small and speak about the actions of some market participants. “Volumes are very low, significantly below the levels that were in September,” – said the expert.

For comparison, 2 September trading volumes “Transaero” on the Moscow stock exchange excluding repos amounted to 87.3 million rubles, with 4,33 thousand transactions. Price of one share of Transaero on 2 September of the current year rose to the level of viewing area 131,5 RUB, however, on the same day of the action did not deter the growth and fell by 24.5%, then the entire month was lost in value. From 2 September to 20 October, the price of securities of the company fell nearly 13 times.

“Transaero” – full illiquid, he has a very small capitalization. Of course, no so-called big players don’t trade it. There are stocks whose value is near zero, there is none. I don’t remember doing a deal on Transaero shares. 15 years trading stocks,” said Alexey Bachurin from “Renaissance Capital”.

The Bankruptcy Of “Transaero”

The decision on bankruptcy “Transaero”, the accumulated 250 billion rubles of debt under the operational control of “Aeroflot”, adopted at the governmental meeting with the participation of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on October 1. The carrier has closed the sale of tickets. Airline tickets (round-trip) for transportation originating before December 15, and end after that date will be forfeited. The largest airlines have already started the struggle for the routes of Transaero airlines, mostly international. On most of them claim “Aeroflot”.