MOSCOW, 23 Oct.Prime, Dmitry Mayorov. The ruble in the first half of trading Friday increased amid high demand for the Russian currency and the moderate dynamics of the oil market.
The approach of the peak of the October of the tax period supports the Russian currency, said dealers.
The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 13.26 GMT decreased by 0.52 ruble — to 62,07 of the rouble, the Euro rate by 0.58 ruble — to 68,98 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.
The ruble against the dollar and the Euro on Friday afternoon steadily rose amid increased demand for the Russian currency in preparation for the active phase of the tax period, which begins next week with payment on Monday the met.
The cost of oil shows neutral tone, remaining slightly above the level of 48 dollars.
American oil service company Baker Hughes in Friday 20.00 GMT will publish the weekly data on dynamics of number of active drilling rigs in the United States. A week earlier the number of installations in the country decreased by 8 units, or 1%, and amounted to 787 units. In annual terms the index declined by 1131 unit, or 58.9 per cent.
As a result, the price of a barrel of Brent fell on Friday below the key level of 3 thousand rubles, which was not mentioned for several months. Thus, the ruble is showing resilience, which represent and representatives of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
So, support the ruble had a verbal intervention of first Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Dmitry Tulin. In particular, he stated that the dependence of the ruble exchange rate from fluctuations in the price of oil fell. In this case, according to the Central Bank, the ruble will never be the same as stable until November 2014, but such volatility in November-December.
In the end, dollar and Euro actively declined on Friday. Thus, the European currency amid weakness in Forex dropped Tuesday to their lowest levels since early August — before 68,412 of the ruble, the dollar fell below the key level of 62 of the ruble is the third time this week.
Forecasts and recommendations
The prospects of the ruble looks quite optimistic, appreciated Irina Rogova of the Forex Club group of companies.
“The fact that the main negative factor for oil (growth stocks in the U.S. and lack of agreements on reduction of production volumes between the main producer countries) was already built into the price and won back. Hints of the European regulator on the possibility of further stimulus suggests that the economy will gradually recover, which will allow to avoid a sharp reduction of demand for oil,” she said.
On the day USD/RUB will likely hold below the 62 level, aiming at a return to the support of 61.6, predicts Rogova.
The Russian currency looks overvalued by about of of 61.95% and 68.8 ruble per Euro, appreciated Mikhail Krylov from the IR “Golden Hills — Kapital AM”.
“However, in investment circles are growing aware of the fact that too strong weakening of the ruble will reduce the purchasing power of the domestic currency in relation to banking products abroad. Overly favorable exchange rate, at least temporarily not justified by the economic indicators. In this regard, you can expect even more cheap reserve currencies, including 61.3% and 68.1 ruble per Euro”, — he said.