MOSCOW, October 23. The Ministry does not consider the scenario of economic development at an oil price much below $40. This was stated by Minister of economic development of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev.
“We do not consider this scenario. Our conservative forecast is $40 per barrel”, – he said.
In his words, “such exercises may be important as a stress-test scenario, but not have predictive power.”
Earlier, first Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Dmitry Tulin has declared that the Bank of Russia lays in the pessimistic forecast, oil prices significantly below $ 40 per barrel.
Risks for the Russian economy
The economic development Ministry sees no risks for the Russian economy due to the slowdown of economic growth in China, said the speaker.
“Of course, such risks exist. The economic slowdown in China, a fact that is almost predetermined. The question is whether this will be a managed descent, the so-called soft landing, or hard. While all indicators lead to the fact that the Chinese colleagues are soft landing”, – said Ulyukayev.
The Minister added that, in his opinion, radical changes in the Chinese economy will not happen, and the markets will have time to react.
As a result, the slowdown of the Chinese economy would not entail any dramatic events, concluded the speaker.
On the fields
The speaker considers to be more reasonable investments in the existing oil and gas fields than in the new.
“If we talk about the investment of oil and gas, I am a supporter of more investments existing Mature fields,” he told reporters.
According to him, the level of exploitation of existing fields is much lower than in America. “We have 25 per cent, there – 40 percent,” he said.
Investment in Mature fields are virtually risk-free, with developed infrastructure. “This is the kind of production that gives maximum tax effect. This is an absolute localization”, – he added.
Forecast of export price for gas
Forecast of export price for gas in 2016 a little high, said Ulyukayev.
“There is some variation in the direction of increasing”, – he said.
In the forecast of the RF Federal budget for 2016 was laid the price of gas exports to foreign countries at the level of 199 dollars for 1 thousand in cubic m /2015 – $ 250 per 1 thousand cubic meters.
Gas exports next year is projected at 127,8 billion cubic meters against 125,2 billion cubic meters in 2015.
On the application of Iran for a loan from the Russian Federation
Ulyukayev yet known about the claim of Iran on loan from the Russian Federation.
“I don’t know anything about such a request,” said he, answering the question, did the Ministry request.
At the same time, earlier, Minister of energy Alexander Novak announced during his visit to Tehran that the Ministry of economic development and the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation review the application of Iran for a loan from Russia at $5 billion.
Novak noted that the budget interstate loan is widely used as a financial instrument for stimulating and accelerating bilateral cooperation between the two countries. He recalled that a similar mechanism was used in relations with Cuba.
As previously reported with reference to the Deputy energy Minister Anatoly Yanovsky, Russian banks including VEB and VTB may become the organizers of credit for Iran.