Oil and trillions of budget, Ministry of Finance or As the “set left”

Oil and trillions of budget, Ministry of Finance or As the “set left”


The draft budget for 2016 provides for more than 3.6 trillion rubles from the tax on mineral extraction (met), will provide 2.4 trillion export duties on hydrocarbons. Included in it and freeze export duties on oil.

MOSCOW, 26 Jan. The government of the Russian Federation on Friday, October 23, was introduced to the state Duma the draft budget for 2016; the total income of the state estimated at 13.7 trillion rubles at a cost of 16 trillion. The oil and gas industry needs to ensure that the income 6,044 trillion rubles, or 44% of all revenues.

Estimates for next year based on the estimation of prices for the Urals oil at $ 50 per barrel and the dollar exchange rate to 63.3 per ruble. The lion’s share of oil and gas revenues 2016 — more than 3.6 trillion rubles — will be provided a receipt from the tax on mineral extraction (met). Another 2.4 trillion will give export duties on hydrocarbons.

The draft budget is also interesting because it reveals the details of the proposals of the Ministry of Finance on withdrawal in 2016 additional revenue from the oil and gas industry due to the freezing of export duties on oil level is 42% and the growth in the severance tax on gas for “Gazprom”. In total these measures will have a budget of 308 billion rubles, which exceeds the initially requested the Ministry of Finance amount (200 billion from oil and $ 100 billion from Gazprom).

To the last shirt

The Ministry of energy struggling defended the interests of the oil and gas industry and offered a compromise — to freeze the duty on oil in 8 months, which would give the budget of 133 billion rubles, and the rest to get taxes from rising oil production.

Most likely, the Department unexpectedly raised its forecast for oil production in 2016 up to 533 million tonnes to 528 million. However, despite the fact that in the draft budget to freeze duty for the whole year, the production of “black gold” and remained inflated.

“Novak (Minister of energy of the Russian Federation — ed.) his shirt was torn, protected the oil and gas companies, because to withdraw would than agreed with the business,” said one of the participants in the discussion, when the budget was discussed in the government.

In particular, the Ministry insisted on a clarification of the calculation of the mineral extraction tax for Gazprom to dodohead 2016 from the gas monopoly has not exceeded 100 billion requested by the Ministry of Finance.

However, as follows from the draft budget, approximately 308 billion rubles of dopdohodov will be received by the state in 2016 due to the freezing of export duties on oil and changes in met rates for gas for “Gazprom”.

“195,425 billion rubles — at the expense of preservation of rates of export duties on oil at 2015 (42%) compared to the previously anticipated reduction to 36% under the “tax maneuver”; 112,397 billion rubles due to changes in mineral extraction tax rates for gas production and gas condensate for taxpayers who are owners of the Unified gas supply system (Gazprom)”, — stated in the explanatory note to the draft budget.

Excluding the decrease in income tax on profits payable to the Federal budget, the growing tax burden on the oil and gas sector, freezing of the export duty will give 199,414 billion rubles, and the change in the rate of met on gas for Gazprom — 114,691 billion.

Gas according to the formula considered

The severance tax on natural gas is expected will bring the total budget in 2016 445,366 billion rubles, for gas condensate — 109,643 billion. Taxable production is incorporated in the size 541,106 billion cubic meters and 29,08 million tons respectively. In this case, the gas production in 2016 is expected to reach 635 billion cubic meters against 626 billion in 2015 and 643 billion in 2014.

Estimated average met rates for gas in 2016 is forecast to be 842,9864 rubles per thousand cubic meters, gas condensate — 3872 rubles per ton.

Met on gas and gas condensate is calculated by a formula which takes into account the multicomponent composition of the gas, the price situation on the markets, the degree of complexity of production. For the removal of dopdohodov with Gazprom in 2016, $ 114,691 billion rubles, it is proposed to legislatively specify in the formula the procedure for calculating a base value of unit of conditional fuel. For this purpose, prepared a draft law “On amendments to article 342.4 of the second part of the Tax code of the Russian Federation”.

“The bill provides for adjustment of the indicator “unit of fuel” used to calculate tax rates on gas production and gas condensate, by a factor characterizing the yield of export unit of conditional fuel (GFP). The specified ratio in 2016 will be: for Gazprom -1, for all other taxpayers — 0,7317. The coefficient in the formula for calculating the indicator of unit of conditional fuel is changed from 0.15 to 0,2051″, — explained in the documents to the draft budget for 2016.

The estimated tax rate in the extraction of gas and gas condensate is determined as the product of rates, the value of a unit of fuel equivalent and the coefficient characterizing the degree of complexity of production of hydrocarbon deposits. The resulting product is summed with the value of the indicator of the cost of transportation of gas. Due to the fact that in 2016 the rate of growth of tariffs for gas transportation through the UGSS exceed an expected inflation measure of the cost of transportation of gas, equal to zero, is added to the document.

Trillions from the depths

At the met have the most significant source of revenues oil and gas revenues. So, the calculated amount of mineral extraction tax on oil is estimated in 2016 at the level of 3,544 trillion rubles, billion rubles 9,296 have to give the oil the continental shelf of the Russian Federation.

After deducting all benefits, revenues from the severance tax on oil may amount 3,075 trillion rubles; the oil extracted on the continental shelf of the Russian Federation — 4,851 billion. “Considered taxable volumes of oil production in the amount of 487,843 million tons”, — stated in the explanatory note to the draft budget.

“The average coefficient characterizing dynamics of world prices for oil, will be 8,4885. The weighted average tax rate for oil adjusted by the specified rate for 2016 is adopted in the amount 7,285 thousand rubles per ton of oil,” say the authors of the document.

The base tax rate on oil in 2016 will increase from 766 to 857 rubles per ton, which will bring the budget 375,956 billion rubles of additional income. But falling world oil prices will lead to lower revenues from the severance tax on 201,844 billion, considered the authors of the project.

Oil production is expected in 2016 will reach 533 million tons compared to 531 million projected in 2015 and 526 million tonnes in 2014. The change in the projected volumes of production of hydrocarbons and other minerals will give the budget in 2016 4,554 billion of dopdohodov.

Export prospects

Revenues from the levying of export customs duties for oil in 2016 are projected at $ 1,197 trillion rubles; gas — 476,32 billion rubles on goods produced from oil (gasoline and diesel) — 740,993 billion.

Oil exports in 2016 are forecast at the level of 233,5 million tons (2015 to 237 million in 2014 — 233 million); gas — 175 billion cubic meters (in 2015 170 billion in 2014 — a total of 174 billion); petroleum products — 173 million tons (in 2015 $ 175 million, in 2014 — 165 million).

“The revenues from the levying of export duties on hydrocarbons are calculated on the basis of the predicted taxable volume of oil exports in the amount of amounted to 197.6 million tonnes; gas in the amount 127,8 billion cubic meters; the goods produced from oil at $ 167,6 million tons”, — it is specified in the explanatory note to the draft budget.

Weighted average rates of export duties is expected in 2016 will be: oil — 105,01 dollars per ton; on extra-viscous oil — 12,79 dollar (10% of the rates of export customs duties on oil); dark oil products — 86,09 dollar (82%); diesel fuel 41,91 dollar (40%); other light oil — 41,95 dollar (40%); straight-run gasoline — 74,50 dollar (71%); commercial gasoline — 63,73 dollar (61%).

Rate of export duties on gas will continue in the amount equal to 30% of the sales volume of exported gas. The price of gas to far abroad countries is projected at 199 dollars per thousand cubic meters (in 2015 — $ 250 in 2014 — 351 dollar). The decline in export prices for gas will lead to the dropping-out income of the budget 12,441 billion.

It is also anticipated reduction of Federal revenues in 2016 at 17,931 billion rubles from lowering tax rate gasoline and other light oil products (from 48% to 40%); straight-run gasoline and commercial (85% and 78% to 71% and 61%, respectively), as well as the increase rate of the duty on dark oil products (from 76% to 82%).

The projected increase in the dollar against the ruble, on the contrary, will lead to higher Federal revenues from the levying of export duties on 80,528 billion.