The dollar calculations “tomorrow” by 14.44 MSK decreased by 0.09 ruble – to 62,29 rouble, the Euro rate has not changed in price – 68,70 of the ruble. Uncertain dynamics of oil market does not give rise to a steady growth of currency of the Russian Federation.
MOSCOW, 26 Jan. Dmitry Mayorov. The ruble in the first half of the trading fluctuated without some of the dynamics around the closing levels of the previous week, moving from low growth to decline and back to the lack of a definite trend in the oil market.
The onset of the peak of the October of the tax period this week to support the ruble exchange rate, dealers say.
Later this week important signals will come from the fed, and Central Bank deciding on rates.
The dollar calculations “tomorrow” by 14.44 MSK decreased by 0.09 ruble — to 62,29 rouble, the Euro rate has not changed in price — 68,70 of the ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.
Courses of the ruble against the dollar and the Euro on Monday afternoon, slightly changed near the previous closing levels. The strengthening of the ruble observed at the end of last week, returned the value of the currency basket (0.55 dollars and 0.45 euros) to the level of 65 rubles, the ruble stops strengthening for the past 2.5 weeks the exchange rate fluctuations.
Uncertain dynamics of oil market, kept around the level of 48 USD per barrel of Brent, does not give rise to a steady growth of currency of the Russian Federation.
While the oil market tries to be adjusted upwards, however, oil prices may start to decline sharply due to the fact that the global capacity for storage of petroleum products is close to its exhaustion, which is another factor to oversupply in raw materials, according to report Goldman Sachs.
At the same time, the market has a peak of the tax period — today, banks transfer money to the budget VAT, mineral extraction tax and excise duties, and on Wednesday — the profit tax.
In addition to 140 billion rubles, which went in part of the taxes from the banking system last Friday, until mid-week outflow in connection with taxes can be as high as us $ 300 billion, estimated at Raiffeisenbank.
In the end, the dollar and the Euro against the ruble weakly vary about the levels of the previous closing. The bi-currency basket holds the mark of 65 rubles.
Forecasts and recommendations
Current levels of trade are slightly above 62 rubles per dollar on the week, the continued growth of the ruble is possible, but it will again come under the leadership of the oil price, because the tax period ends, analysts argue Dukascopy Bank.
“Oil above $ 50 may push EUR/USD in a long-awaited area below 60,” he estimated they.
However, there are also pessimistic assessments. Pressure on the ruble in the next few days will be amplified due to the fact that in December will once again be the period of peak payments on external debt, and those who will need foreign currency, most likely, will start to buy in advance before December, says Oleg Sergeev from the company NAS Broker.
“As for the actions of the Central Bank of Russia, it is unlikely that he will do significant changes to its policy, therefore, his actions will not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the course and prevent another wave of weakening of ruble”, — he added.