The price of oil in 2016-2018, in one scenario, may be maintained at the level of 40 dollars per barrel, which would mean re-shock for the Russian economy, said Deputy economic development Minister Alexei Vedev.
MOSCOW, 27 Jan. The Ministry of economic development of the Russian Federation suggests that the Russian economy while maintaining oil prices at 40 dollars a barrel for 2016-2018 are waiting for new shocks that will require additional time for economic recovery to pre-crisis levels, said Deputy economic development Minister Alexei Vedev.
“The conservative scenario assumes a trajectory of decline of oil to $ 40 per barrel — the average level in 2016, and this level of oil prices persists until 2018. According to our estimates, this reduction will mean the repeated shock to the Russian economy, the external shock and, of course, need time to adapt to new conditions,” — said Vedev, speaking at the “government hour” in the Federation Council.
In late August, the Minister of economic development of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev said that the probability of this scenario is low.
“In this scenario, we expect next year decrease in both GDP and investment, and real disposable income. The economy to return to pre-crisis level in this scenario, we expected no earlier than 2020,” — said Vedev.