The ruble is falling in the correction on the background of the uncertain dynamics of oil market

The ruble is falling in the correction on the background of the uncertain dynamics of oil market


Oil on Thursday after dropping a five percent jump the day before. The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 16.32 MSK increased by 0.10 ruble — to 64,05 of the rouble, the Euro rate — 0.21 ruble — to 70,03 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.

MOSCOW, 29 Oct. The ruble on Thursday resumed its decline, reflecting the weakening of oil, which is adjusted down after the jump ahead by 5%.

The depreciation of the Euro against the us dollar below the level of 1.1 on the background of the decisions and comments of the fed on interest rate also supports the reduction of demand for risky assets.

The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 16.32 MSK increased by 0.10 ruble — to 64,05 of the rouble, the Euro rate — 0.21 ruble — to 70,03 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.

THE RUBLE IS DOWN A BIT

Courses of the ruble against the dollar and Euro on Thursday mostly fell within the correction, reacting to falling oil prices after the 5% jump on Wednesday.

The reason for the pressure on the markets of risk assets, including crude oil, become the decision and comments by the fed. On Wednesday, the financial regulator once again kept its base rate at a minimum level of 0-0. 25%, as analysts expected. The fed did not rule out a rate hike in December, depending on employment and inflation.

Signal a reduced demand for risk was the Euro falling below the key level of 1.1 dollar to lows not seen since early July.

However, support for the rouble have attempts the cost of oil to return to the level of 49 dollars per barrel, and this reduces the gains of the major reserve currencies.

In the end, the price of a barrel of Brent in rubles grew up a little in the area of 3,1 thousand after consolidation around key performance indicator 3 thousand in the previous days.

FORECASTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The signal to stop growth of the American currency can become a break below the support located at the level of 63.5 rubles to the dollar, according to Bogdan Zvarich from THEIR “Finam”.

“If the dollar goes under this level, we can expect further declines and attempts to overcome the level 61, which is the minimum of October,” he added.

However, the expensive national currency creates additional pressure on the budget, to be filled from the sale of energy, says Gleb market pulse of the company Profit Group. “To stabilize the budget should balance the price of oil in rubles, and therefore to improve the rate of the dollar against the ruble,” he said.

“Oil is likely to again trade in the range of from 47 to 50 dollars per barrel. The Russian Central Bank will leave the rate on Friday, as low inflation, we feel the main priority. The dollar rate at the level of 65 rubles can not be delayed and we should expect its growth to 67 rubles soon”, — said market pulse.

In current conditions it is quite feasible is the preservation of the key rate of the CBR at the same level of 11%, also assessed Oksana cholodenko from “BCS Express”. “However, there are certain concerns its possible reduction, as reflected in the sovereign bond market. This factor is negative for the national currency,” she said.

“Also not in favor of the ruble plays and the completion of the tax period. Favorable aspects can be noted fairly moderate repayment schedule of foreign debt of Russian companies in November — slightly less than $ 9 billion. While the expected range of fluctuations of the dollar 63-66,5 ruble,” said Kholodenko.