MOSCOW, 30 Oct.Prime, Dmitry Mayorov. The ruble on Friday afternoon fluctuated around previous closing levels, with a slight tendency to increase, reflecting slightly positive dynamics of the oil market.
The expectations that the Bank of Russia key rate reduces market activity in currency trading.
The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 12.44 GMT decreased by 0.26 ruble — to 64,13 of the rouble, the Euro rate by 0.09 ruble — to 70,59 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.
The ruble is waiting for news from the Central Bank
Courses of the ruble against the dollar and the Euro in the first half of trading Friday little changed near the previous closing levels, with a tendency to increase.
The main reference for the rouble remains the oil market. However, he does not demonstrate some of the dynamics.
So, weak macroeconomic data in the US pushed oil prices. Real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2015, according to the first estimate, amounted to 1.5% in annual terms. The data were worse than forecasts of analysts, who had expected GDP growth of 1.6%. In the second quarter the growth amounted to 3.9%.
Attempts oil to grow immediately respond to the weakening of the dollar against the ruble, which rose strongly this week. However, this does not prevent to remain the ruble price of Brent crude above 3.1 thousand rubles, which is slightly higher than 3 thousand, for which she fought a few days ago.
The factor of uncertainty remains the decision of the Central Bank of Russia key rate, which the regulator will be announced at 13.30 GMT. Expectations that constrain market activity, say dealers.
Forecasts and recommendations
Until recently (until the ruble steadily strengthened) doubts about further rate cuts by the Bank of Russia was not, says Alyona Afanasyeva from Forex Club.
“However, the recent sharp decline in the currency of the Russian Federation on the background of an equally sharp drop in oil raises fears of a new wave of inflation. In such circumstances, the regulator may not decide to go on a big risk, and therefore, a rate increase of 50 basis points remains in question”, she added.
The views of market participants were divided almost equally between those who believe that the regulator will refrain from revising the rates, and those who expects reduction of the key rate by 50 basis points, says Maxim Korovin of “VTB Capital”.
“In our opinion, the rate cut will not happen, and for the currency market this solution will be neutral. Accordingly, in the medium term, the direction of the exchange rate of the ruble will continue to dictate in the first place, external factors — oil prices and the General attitude towards the developing markets,” he added.
The current level of oil prices can be called comfortable for the ruble, said Vladimir Zotov from the Ural Bank of reconstruction and development. “Surprise can be followed by the CBR. Market carefully lays at current quotations the reduction of the key rate by 0.5 percentage points, based on inflationary expectations. In September, the consumer price growth slowed to 15.5% (compared to August values of 15.8%),” he says.
“The rouble has chances to finish October in the red (that will largely depend on the actions and comments of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation). Before the announcement of the results of the meeting of the pair dollar/ruble is expected to trade in the range of 64-64,6”, — said Zotov.