HELSINKI, 30 October. /Corr. Nina Burmistrova/. Russian-Finnish trade and economic relations can return to normal level about in the years 2022-2023. This opinion was expressed in an interview with the Russian trade representative in Finland Valery Shlyamin.
According to him, the trade turnover between our countries this year will amount to $10.2 billion
“Foreign trade turnover of Russia and Finland for the year 2014 declined, according to Russian customs statistics, 14.7%. In January-August of 2015 stood at $6.5 billion, a decrease compared to the same period of the previous year by 42.5%. Russian exports was $4.8 billion, falling by 41.3%, import – $1.8 billion, the drop here at 45,6%. Expected that by the end of 2015, Russian exports will be around 7.5 billion, and imports of 2.7 billion,” said the Shlyamin.
He noted that according to the trade mission in 2015 in the trajectory dynamics of trade turnover “reached bottom”.
Tourism ceased to be a driver of growth
According to Shliamin, despite the decline in the purchasing power of Russians, Finland is the most visited country in Europe for our compatriots.
“In the first half of 2015 it was visited by 1.7 million people. This year, according to our estimates, the flow of Russian tourists in Finland will be reduced by approximately 20 per cent,” he said.
As for the Finns, the foreign political situation, believes the trade representative, had little impact on the number of people visiting the Russian Federation for various purposes, and the depreciation of the ruble to the Euro made cross-border Russian territory even more attractive to neighbors, intending to make a purchase.
“According to our estimates, financial losses of the Finnish side of the continuing decline of Russian tourism to be about $400 million this year, said the Shlyamin, noting that Russia in 2014-2015 has not made significant positive developments in the field of incoming tourism for Finnish citizens.
The restoration will begin in the next five years
The experts of the trade Mission, according to Shliamin tried to simulate three possible scenarios of development of Russian – Finnish trade for the period until 2020. And predictions, even on a negative scenario, saying that “in the next five years it is expected a stable trend towards the restoration of trade relations”.
“However, unfortunately, the level of turnover in 2020 will not be comparable with 2013. The main reason is in the continuing at around $50 per barrel oil price for quite a long time. Considering the totality of the factors, influencing the development of our trade relations for the foreseeable period, we will be able to reach its former level of turnover around 2022-2023 year”, – said the trade representative.
The structure of trade will change, but not quickly
The Shlyamin believes that in the near future commodities – energy, forest and others will still take up a significant portion, more than 60% of Russian exports to Finland, but their share in the structure of domestic exports will gradually decrease.
For this purpose, according to the interlocutor of the Agency, there is encouraging background.
“In recent years there has been an intensified contacts innovators of the neighboring countries, technology companies and universities. Developing industrial cooperation. Today the Russians and the Finns have jointly design and build multi-purpose ships designed to work in the Arctic. Appeared promising joint initiatives in the field of telecommunications, biomedical technology, robotics, clean technology and energy efficiency,” he concluded.