MOSCOW, November 3. The chamber believes londontimes target inflation at 12.2% in 2015. this is stated in the opinion of the Agency on the draft Federal budget 2016, published in electronic base of documents of the state Duma.
“There are certain risks of exceeding in 2015, the expected assessment of inflation presented in the forecast /12,2%/. As of 26 October 2015, compared with the beginning of the year, the inflation rate was 11.2%. Assessment of the accounting chamber, the expected value of inflation seems quite challenging, including due to the seasonal increase in fruit and vegetable prices in the last months of the current year and a possible further weakening of the ruble against the dollar with the observed volatility of oil prices on the world market with a predominance of tendency to decrease”, – the document says.
About oil prices
The chamber sees significant downside risks to the prices of Urals crude oil than planned in the draft budget for 2016
“It should be noted that the direction and range of changes in oil prices difficult to predict, their dynamics is influenced by both economic and geopolitical factors. See this year increased volatility in oil prices in the world market testifies to the possibility of multidirectional movement of prices for Urals oil on the projected levels. However, the risks of reduction of prices for Urals oil, according to audit chamber, more meaningful,” reads the document.
Assessment of the audit chamber, a possible drop in oil prices in some time periods within 2016-2018, below the projected level will have a significant negative impact on the development of the Russian economy and social sphere, including to contribute to the growth of inflation, which will lead to the need to implement emergency, including fiscal measures to stabilize the situation.
“The specified variant of development of events is not considered in the proposed materials forecast”, – noted in the Supervisory Agency.
The forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation prepared by the Ministry of economic development, which is based on the draft budget for 2016, in the baseline calculated based on the average world price of Urals oil at $50 per barrel in 2016, $52 per barrel in 2017, $55 per barrel in 2018 and nominal exchange rate 63.3%, to 63.1 rubles per dollar and 62.5 rubles per dollar, respectively.
About import substitution
Also, the chamber considers insufficient attention to the problems of import substitution in the draft budget for 2016. This is stated in the opinion of the Agency on the draft Federal budget in 2016, published in electronic base of documents of the state Duma.
“However, according to audit chamber, in the materials presented to predict the issues of import substitution as a factor of industrial upgrading production facilities, increase investment and ultimately GDP growth and macroeconomic stability are not adequately addressed. Probably insufficient attention to the problems of import substitution, the solution of which often goes beyond the three-year forecast period, is one of the reasons that the target scenario has been designed to reflect the results of transition to a new model of economic growth, were substantial not disclosed”, – the document says.
In conclusion, it is noted that the chamber considers outstanding anti-crisis plan in terms of import substitution and the recapitalization of systemically important banks.
“Do not bring significant socio-economic effect of implementation of anti-crisis plan in terms of import substitution initiatives, as well as recapitalization of systemically important banks”, – the document says.
On the budget revenue
The Agency stresses that the evaluation of the Ministry of Finance on the budget revenues from privatization in 2016 are too high by half and is 33,2 bn, which is 15.8 billion rubles above assessment of the Agency. This is stated in the conclusion of the accounts chamber on the draft Federal budget for 2016, published in electronic base of documents of the state Duma.
“The analysis is additionally provided by the Ministry of Finance data has shown that confirm the validity of the forecast of revenues from privatization in the amount of 15.8 billion rubles. it is not possible”, – stated in the conclusion.
SP notes that given the slow implementation of the privatization program for 2014-2016, as well as the negative impact of sanctions there is a risk of non-compliance with the orders of the President of the Russian Federation N596 about the state capital of companies “the non-oil sector” non-natural monopolies and organizations of the defense complex.
In addition, the JV sees risks of non-realization of the package of shares of “Sovcomflot” next year, 12 billion rubles in adverse market conditions.
The document notes that the budget for 2016 could be short 34 billion roubles of profit of the Central Bank for concessional lending through the Agency for Deposit insurance (DIA). Thus, instead of the projected 336 billion roubles the regulator will be able to transfer into the budget only 302 billion.
About realization of state programs
The chamber sees the risk of failure to achieve targets for 37 of the 40 state programs in 2016, said in the conclusion.
“The results of the expert evaluation established that in 2016 the 14 state programs, there are risks of failure from 10% to 20% of the indicators (indicators), in 12 state programs – from 20% to 30%, and 1 state program – more than 30%. In addition, in 2016, there are risks of failure to achieve values of about 300 indicators, which accounts to 15.3% of their total volume,” as stated in the conclusion.
The draft Federal budget for 2016 generated by software cost structure based on 40 state programmes. However, as stressed by the chamber, the goals of many state programs vague, unclear, open to arbitrary interpretation that does not allow you to provide validation of their achievement.
“Indicators of decrees of the President of the Russian Federation is not fully accounted for in the state programs, and the values of indicators for a number of state programs do not meet the values of indicators of decrees of the President”, – stated in the conclusion of the regulatory agencies.