According to the data of the Moscow exchange, the dollar calculations “tomorrow” grew up to 64,03 of the rouble, the Euro rate to the ruble 70,66 amid weakening oil prices.
MOSCOW, 2 Nov. Elena Likova. The ruble against the dollar and Euro on Monday evening auction continued the daily decline amid weakening prices for oil of mark Brent.
However, the rate of decline has slowed thanks to oil prices managed to settle above $ 49 per barrel.
The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 18.50 Moscow time grew by 8 cents to 64,03 of the rouble, the Euro rate by 29 cents, to 70,66 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.
At this stage, the ruble, in fact, there is only one catalyst for movements, says the analyst of Forex Club Irina Rogova. And continue in his role playing the dynamics of oil prices, which on Monday again resumed its decline after Friday’s growth caused by data in the number of working drilling rigs in the USA from Baker Hughes, which reflected another decline, she explains
“But expectations of reduction of extraction is not enough. To believe that the imbalance of supply and demand will be reduced, the necessary facts. But while in the States a significant production decline is not happening,” says the analyst.
The policy of “the Golden mean”
Structural imbalances of the Russian economy, associated in particular with high dependence on imports and external economic conditions, make it impossible to ensure the stability of the exchange rate, said first Deputy Chairman of Bank of Russia Dmitry Tulin.
However, he noted that monetary policy does not change, it must be weighed, balanced, strict, moderately hard. Soft is a negative connotation to the Central Bank, definitely hard — too negative connotation, said Thulin.
However, he reiterated that the regulator has no target for the exchange rate, under which the regulator would come out on the market with intervention in order to prevent excessive strengthening of the national currency.
“Overall, we believe interest rate and exchange rate policy the Central Bank is absolutely adequate to the current market reality. We also remind that playing against the market no regulator in the world. However, the Russian Central Bank can smooth out external shocks to companies and ordinary citizens”, — says Alexander Razuvaev of “Alpari”.
Forecasts and recommendations
The Bank of Russia decision to keep unchanged the key rate adopted on Friday, is already, in fact, the market played out, says Rogov. “Moreover, the regulator has given pretty clearly to understand that reduction can occur at a future meeting. This means that significant support for the ruble should not wait,” she says.
Thus, we can assume that as long as the oil will be demonstrating mixed dynamics, similar movements can be observed and together the “dollar-ruble”, concludes Rogova. At this stage, looks the most likely course the range of 63.3-65 rubles per dollar, says the analyst.
Domestic currency at the moment can be quite vulnerable to adverse changes in external factors due to the traditional for the beginning of the month of the inflow of budget liquidity to the domestic market, says Yuri Kravchenko from “Veles Capital”.