MOSCOW, November 3. The financial authorities shared their assessments of the situation in the Russian economy, and made predictions about its growth trajectory.
- About oil prices and the ruble exchange rate
Speaking in the state Duma, the head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina, stated that oil prices may remain at low levels in the “foreseeable future”, but a further weakening of the ruble, the regulator does not expect.
“We must not forget that our base scenario assumes oil prices of 50 dollars per barrel, that is, we do not expect in this scenario, no relaxation of the course and its impact on inflation,” she said.
Estimated Nabiullina, the ruble has adapted to the new economic conditions after the transition to float freely.
- About inflation
According to Nabiullina, inflation for citizens of Russia is more important than the ruble, the Central Bank’s policy is aimed at protecting the interests of the population. It is necessary to reduce inflation to our target level of 4% to 2017, said the head of the Bank of Russia.
“According to the polls, inflation is the number one problem. In the past year thought so 70% of Russians, this is their 80%. The solution to this problem largely determines people’s attitudes towards economic policy in General”, – said Nabiullina. At year-end, the Bank of Russia expects the growth of consumer at the level of 12-13%, but already at the beginning of next year inflation will start to slow down dramatically.
According to the Deputy Minister of economic development Eugene yellin, inflation by the end of 2015 will amount to 12.2%. This will reduce real wages by 8.1%. “We will receive a reduction in real income of 4%,” – said the Deputy Minister, speaking in the Duma.
- The release of the growth trajectory
According to yellin, the pace of the Russian economy from the recession is now significantly lower than in 2008-2009.
The Deputy Minister noted that by the end of 2015 the GDP will be 3.9% and investment in fixed capital will decrease by 9.9%. Due to the low dynamics of the manufacturing industry, the downturn in the industry will amount to 3.3%, said Elin.
In the coming years the Russian economy will influence the external conditions, in turn, said Nabiullina.
“For the next three years, our country and our economy on a trajectory of growth, regardless of constantly changing external conditions, according to the Central Bank, should be a combination of the three elements of economic policy”, said the head of the Bank of Russia.
Necessary conservative fiscal policy and a balanced monetary policy, and should have a strong agenda of structural reforms.
According to Nabiullina, the potential for diversification of the Russian economy are outlined in the segment of small and medium-sized businesses.
- On investments and capital outflow
In turn, the head of the Ministry of Finance Anton Siluanov stated that the Russian fiscal and economic policies inspire confidence of foreign investors, some of them returned to Russia. Capital outflow from Russia in 2015 will be about $70 billion, said Siluanov.
“We find that among investors improves the credibility of the budget policy, reduced capital outflows. In the beginning of the year, we estimate, were about $130 billion In the third quarter was net capital inflow of $5.3 billion,” – said Siluanov.
A similar forecast of capital outflow by the end of this year and announced on Friday. According to her, the Bank of Russia decreased the forecast on capital outflow in 2015 to just over $70 billion instead of an earlier projection of $85 billion. Adjustment of forecast due, including the positive data of the third quarter of 2015.