MOSCOW, November 3. Vnesheconombank predicts a decline in GDP by 3.9% in 2015. This is stated in the VEB forecast on economic development of the Russian Federation to 2015-2018.
“A negative external shock associated with the drop in oil prices and the anti-Russian sanctions, has begun to have a noticeable impact on economic performance since the end of 2014. The active phase of the economic downturn continued in the first two quarters of 2015. Total GDP declined from December 2014 to June 2015 5.2%”, – stated in the forecast.
Depending on the dynamics of oil prices and the effect of fiscal and monetary policy, the VEB considers three scenarios of economic development in 2016-2018. The first conservative scenario or on the verge of stagnation involves the price of oil in 2016-2018 at relatively stable levels 50-55 dollars per barrel.
Moreover, this scenario assumes conducting stringent budgetary and monetary policy. In order to ensure the best balance of the budget is expected to significantly limit the size of indexation of pensions and salaries in the public sector. At the same time to maintain incomes and energy-intensive companies, this scenario allows for the restriction of growth of tariffs of infrastructure companies a level below inflation. In these circumstances, GDP growth in 2016 is estimated at 0.7-1% and only in 2017-2018 possible recovery growth at 2.5-2.7 per cent.
The second scenario of the Russian economy assumes a more favorable dynamics of world oil prices (55-60-70 dollars per barrel), what allows to increase budget revenues and to increase foreign exchange reserves. GDP growth in this case in 2016 will amount to 1.3 to 1.6%, while in 2017-2018, stimulating the dynamics of oil prices will make it possible to achieve GDP growth in diapozone to 2.8-3.3%.
The third scenario is moderately optimistic due to the expansionary monetary and fiscal policy. The dynamics of oil prices corresponds to the second scenario. To stimulate long-term growth assumes additional funding of health, education, science, infrastructure projects, industrial activities and agricultural policy.
For these purposes it is provided as an additional investment from the national welfare Fund (up to 1/3 of the size of the Fund) and additional budget expenditures in the framework of the state programs. This scenario is also based on a relatively soft monetary policy aimed at increasing the availability of credit resources and encouraging investments, including through increased use of special lending instruments the Bank of Russia.
If higher oil prices can boost GDP growth rate by 0,6-0,8%, the implementation of additional stimulus measures in the context of significant underutilized capacity could potentially increase the pace of GDP growth in 2016 to 3%, and in the medium term to 4% and higher without significant inflationary consequences.