Moscow. November 3. Vnesheconombank publishes its variant of the forecast of economic development of Russia in 2015-2018, according to which the dollar will fluctuate in the range of 62-68 rubles.
“In the medium term the exchange rate will fluctuate in the range of 62-68 rubles per dollar, depending on oil prices and policy of the Bank of Russia on the currency market”, – said in a forecast on the web.
VEB has prepared 3 scenarios of economic development.
In the first scenario the price of oil in 2016-2018 is at $50-55 per barrel. “Implementation of stringent budgetary policy (limiting the indexation of pensions and salaries in the public sector). Allowed restriction of growth of tariffs of infrastructure companies a level below inflation. The economy in 2016 will be close to stagnation, with GDP growth not exceeding 1% in 2017-2018 possible recovery level of 2.5-2.7 per cent,” describe this scenario is closest to the base forecast of Ministry of economic development, economists of the Bank.
In the second and third scenarios, the price of oil, according to the expectations of VEB, in the medium term is trending upwards – in 2016-2018, it is respectively $55-60-70 per barrel.
However, the second scenario assumes that fiscal policy is less rigid and is generally consistent with the parameters of the Main directions of budget policy. “Higher export earnings will enable the Bank of Russia to soften its monetary policy and resume the growth of foreign exchange reserves. GDP growth in 2016 will amount to 1.6% and in 2017-2018 stimulating the dynamics of oil prices will make it possible to achieve GDP growth to 2.8-3.3 per cent,” describe the second scenario in the web.
The third scenario VEB involves the implementation of a major package of anti-crisis measures. “It is supposed to index salaries in the public sector is not less than the rate of inflation. Indexation of pensions shall be in accordance with applicable law. Additional funding for infrastructure projects at the expense of the national welfare Fund (up to 1/3 of the size of the Fund) and additional budget expenditures in the framework of state programs. Relatively soft monetary policy to increase credit availability and stimulate investment. GDP growth in 2016 is restored at the level of 3%, and in the medium term, accelerating to 4% and higher,” describe the benefits of this scenario at Vnesheconombank.
In the first scenario, according to economists VEB, the Bank of Russia has no possibility of replenishment of gold and foreign currency reserves, the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate in 2017-2018 is associated with a decrease in the net outflow of private sector capital. In this scenario EBV predicts the average annual dollar exchange rate in 2016 at the level of 64.5 rubles, in 2017 – 64,1 rubles, in 2018 – of 64.0 rubles.
In the second and third scenarios, in the opinion of experts of VEB, the Bank of Russia on the background of growing oil prices will go to the build-up of foreign exchange reserves. In these two scenarios, the average annual dollar rate, as predicted by VEB, will be in 2016 to 64.2 rubles, in 2017 – 63,5 rubles, in 2018 – 62,0 RUB.