Moscow. On 5 November. The European Commission on Thursday raised its forecast of Eurozone GDP growth for 2015 is expected in may from 1.5% to 1.6%, the forecast for 2016 was reduced from 1.9% to 1.8%, said the EC.
In 28 countries of the European Union expected to expand its GDP by 1.9% this year (1.8% in the may report) and by 2% in the next (2.1% in the previous forecast).
In addition, the EC now expects growth of consumer prices in the countries of the currency bloc next year by 1%, not 1.5%, as expected in the spring. The inflation estimate for the current year remains at the level of 0.1%.
Inflation target of the European Central Bank is at a level “slightly below 2%”.
In 2017, GDP growth in 19 countries of the Eurozone are likely to increase to 1.9%, inflation to 1.6%.
“Today’s economic forecast shows continued moderate economic recovery in the Euro area”, – said Deputy Chairman of the EC, Valdis Dombrovskis. This contribute to the restoration of low oil prices, weak Euro and expansionary monetary policy, he added.
According to experts of the European Commission, the influx of a large number of refugees in the EU may have a small positive impact on the economy that will be more pronounced in certain countries.
“Although in the short term, GDP growth will be through additional government spending, in the medium term it is expected an additional positive impact on growth as a result of the increase in labor supply, subject to the availability of the right policy measures for facilitating the access to the labour market”, – noted in the mesage of EC.
The EC has improved the forecast of GDP growth in Spain and Italy for 2015, confirmed the growth estimate for France, decreased for Germany. As expected, German GDP will grow by 1.7% this year and 1.9% next, French – respectively by 1.1% and 1.4%, 3.1% and 2.7%, Italian 0.9% and 1.5%.
Greece in 2015 will be recorded only recession in the EU, experts of the European Commission: the Greek GDP is likely to decline 1.4 percent and will not grow by 0.5%, as was considered in may. In 2016 the reduction will continue (another 1.3%), and from 2017 Greece’s economy will start recovering, immediately adding 2.7 percent.
The growth forecast for the UK economy decreased from 2.6% to 2.5% in 2015 and was confirmed at 2.4% in 2016.
Unemployment in the Eurozone this year will decrease to 11% from 11.6% in 2014, in 2016 will fall to 10.6%, predicts the EC. The first projection coincides with the may rating, the second is somewhat weaker than expected in the spring of 10.5%. In 2017 is expected to decline to 10.3%.
Nevertheless, unemployment in Greece and Spain in 2015-2016; expected to remain above 20% in France, Italy, Portugal and some other countries is above 10%. In Germany you can decline to 4.7% in 2015 from 5% in 2014 and increase to 4.9% in 2016; both estimates are lower than in may, although the best are in the Eurozone.
According to the EC forecast, the budget deficit of the Eurozone in 2015 will amount to 2% of GDP, as expected, in 2016 – 1.8% of GDP instead of 1.7% of GDP, as previously assumed. The forecast of total debt of the Eurozone for this year is confirmed at around 94% of GDP, the next – raised from 92,5% to 92.9% of GDP.