Moody’s predicted a growth of GDP G20 average of 2.8% until 2018


Moscow. November 10. International rating Agency Moody’s expects GDP growth of G20 countries on average by 2.8% in the years 2015-2017, which is only 0.3 percentage points higher than for 2012-2014. The average increase of the economy in the five years before the global financial crisis was 3.8%, according to the report of the Agency.

“Global growth will be lackluster over the next two years, as the slowdown in China and other emerging economies continued to weigh on the global economy”, – stated in the message.

“Muted global economic growth will not support a significant reduction of the national debt and will not allow Central banks to significantly raise interest rates, says the report’s author, senior Vice President of Moody’s Marie Diron. – The authorities have considerable fiscal and conventional monetary buffers to protect their economies from potential shocks”.

For the current year, analysts predict a rise of GDP of G20 countries, at 2.6%, the next year, they expect growth acceleration to 2.8% in 2017 to 3%.

The contribution of emerging markets to the overall growth of the G20 economy in the years 2015-2017 will be the lowest since the beginning of this Millennium, the report says.

Moody’s predicts that the increase in China’s GDP this year will be below 7%, in 2016 growth will slow to 6.3% and in 2017-6.1 percent.

The increase in the economy will be generally stable in the U.S., Japan and European countries, analysts say. The average rise of the GDP in the years 2015-2017 will be about 2.5% in the US, UK and South Korea, while in Eurozone – to 1.5%.

It is unlikely that commodity prices will increase significantly in the next few years. Pressure on prices will have, in particular, significant reserves and a weakening demand from China and other major importers, I believe in Agency.