CB: the bottom of the slowdown of investment activity in the Russian Federation fail

CB: the bottom of the slowdown of investment activity in the Russian Federation fail


The authors of the report “what do the trends” indicate that a monthly decline of investments in fixed capital (corrected for seasonality) was 0.4%, which is not talking about the beginning of the rise in investment activity.

MOSCOW, 12 Nov. The lowest point of the slowdown of investment activity in Russia at the moment has failed, says the Bulletin of the Department of studies and forecasting of the Central Bank “what the trends”, to be published on a monthly basis.

Presents the findings of the report are based on the analysis of short-term statistical information. The conclusions and recommendations contained in the Bulletin may not necessarily reflect the official position of the regulator noted in the introduction to the report. Head of research and forecasting of the Central Bank, who prepared the Bulletin, September 15, Alexander Morozov, chief economist earlier NWS in Russia and the CIS.

According to Rosstat, the decline of investments in fixed capital in Russia in annual terms in September slowed to 5.6% in August after falling by 6.8%. According to the latest edition of the macro forecast of Ministry of economic development from the beginning of October, the Ministry predicts the decline of investment in Russia in 2016 is 1.6%, but in 2017 expects growth of 2.1% and in 2018 — 2.6%.

“We believe that the lowest point of the slowdown of investment activity currently not completed,” — said in the study. The authors of the document indicate that the reduction of the volume of work in construction and in cement production continued into September. According to the Department of the Central Bank, the monthly decline of investments in fixed capital (corrected for seasonality) was 0.4%, which is not talking about the beginning of the rise in investment activity.

The document notes that the Russian economy is showing signs of stabilization, which is still fragile. In late October, Deputy economic development Minister Alexei Vedev said that the decline of investment in Russia will reach the bottom in the first quarter of 2016, and from the second quarter to begin recovery.