The MAYOR still expects slowdown of GDP decline in the fourth quarter

The MAYOR still expects slowdown of GDP decline in the fourth quarter


The Ministry expects growth of Russia’s GDP in the second quarter of 2016, said the Minister of economic development of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev. He noted that such indirect indicators as the PMI has exceeded 50%.

MOSCOW, 11 Nov. The Ministry expects that the decline in GDP in the fourth quarter in annual terms slowed compared with the third, said the Minister of economic development of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev at the meeting with entrepreneurs of Baden-württemberg (Germany).

“In my view, we passed the lower point (the fall of the economy — ed.) somewhere in June-July this year. Since July, the dynamics of month-to-month seasonality shows more reduction, September-October shows a slight increase, and the lowest point is approximately 3.8% decline in GDP in the third quarter. Deeper. The fourth quarter will be even slightly better than the third,” — said Ulyukayev.

Previously Deputy head of the MAYOR Alexei Vedev said the Ministry expects a slowdown in the decline of the Russian economy in the fourth quarter to 3.8-3.9% yoy from 4.3% in the third quarter. Forecast Ministry for the decline in GDP for 2015 is 3.9%.

Ulyukayev also confirmed that the Ministry expects the recovery growth of Russia’s GDP in the second quarter of 2016. “With the gradual recovery of the consumer demand, primarily due to the recovery of inventories of the business, and then thanks to the recovery of the investment activity”, — explained the Minister.

He noted that such indirect indicators as the PMI has exceeded 50%. “This suggests that business begins to perceive the situation as acceptable… Fell a little investment decline… We did not expect. Frankly, believed that investment is the last thing to recover. But, perhaps, they began to recover a little bit faster than we thought”, — said Ulyukayev.

The head of the MAYOR noted that inflation in Russia remains high. “But it’s pretty fast now will be reduced, because it is influenced primarily exchange rate, devaluation, and she, in turn, focused on the dynamics of oil prices. Both are now in stable condition”, — he explained.