The report of the Central Bank: the decline of Russia’s GDP in 2015 will be 4.2%

The report of the Central Bank: the decline of Russia’s GDP in 2015 will be 4.2%


The Bulletin of the Department of studies and forecasting of the Central Bank “what the trend”, it is noted that the controller still expects the resumption of economic growth before the first quarter of 2016.

MOSCOW, 12 Nov. The GDP of Russia in 2015 may reach 4.2 per cent against the September forecast of 4.3%, and the resumption of economic growth will begin after the first quarter of 2016, according to the Bulletin of the Department of studies and forecasting of the Central Bank “as evidenced by trends”.

The purpose of introducing the Bulletin of materials that will become a regular in the Central Bank — to provide analytical assessment of the most relevant trends in the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and financial market indicators in Russia and in the world, and the prospects of the Russian economy.

“Our model the GDP forecast for 2015 improved slightly to minus 4.2 per cent (minus 4.3% in September), the forecast for a rolling year prior to the first quarter of 2016 is minus 4.5 per cent in the evaluation of minus 4.6% in the previous month”, — stated in the document.

Current statistics shows possible signs of recovery in the manufacturing sector, the sustainability of which, however, is still in question. “We still forecast a resumption of growth in the economy before the first quarter of 2016”, — stated in the document.

Presents the findings of the report are based on the analysis of short-term statistical information. The conclusions and recommendations contained in the Bulletin may not necessarily reflect the official position of the regulator noted in the introduction to the report. Head of research and forecasting of the Central Bank, who prepared the Bulletin, September 15, Alexander Morozov, chief economist earlier NWS in Russia and the CIS.

The Central Bank in September lowered its forecast for Russia’s GDP in 2015 to decline to 3.9 to 4.4 percent in the refinement of the baseline assessment the average annual Urals price to $ 52 dollars per barrel. Ministry of economic development expects the GDP by the end of this year by 3.9%.