Ulyukayev predicted decline in GDP for the year is not more than 3.8%

Moscow. November 11. The lowest point of decline of the Russian economy was passed in June-July, September-October saw a slight increase with regard to cleaning of the seasonal component, said Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev during the meeting with entrepreneurs from Baden-Wuerttemberg on Wednesday in Moscow.

According to him, the decline in GDP in the fourth quarter in annual terms will be smaller than in the third quarter and year-end decline will not exceed 3.8 per cent.

“In my view, we passed a low point in June-July. Since July, the dynamics of month-on-month, cleared of seasonality, does not show more decline, September and October even show a slight increase. The lowest point is approximately 3.8% decline in GDP in the third quarter. Deeper. The fourth quarter will be even slightly better than third quarter. Since the second quarter of next year, we expect the indicator to the corresponding period of the previous year will be positive,” he said.

According to the Ministry, in January-September of 2015, Russia’s GDP fell by 3.8%, and at year end the Ministry had earlier predicted a decline of 3.9%.

Ulyukayev noted that the improvement in the economy’s going to happen with the gradual recovery of consumer demand, inventory of the business and then in investment activity. “Indirect indicators such as manufacturing PMI exceeded 50%, and this suggests that the business begins to perceive the situation as acceptable,” the Minister said.

“Slightly decreased the investment decline. We even didn’t expect that. Frankly, we believed that investment is the last thing to recover. But, perhaps, they will recover a little faster than we thought,” added the speaker.

The Minister also admitted that there is still inflation is still high, but it’s pretty fast now will be reduced, because it is very strongly influenced by the exchange rate – the devaluation of the ruble and the devaluation focused on the dynamics of oil prices, but now and then, and another is in stable condition.

“The banking system recovered from the point of view of financing of deposits of population and companies – about 15% growth. Since July, started slow so far, but the growth of the loan portfolio,” he added.

Addressing German businessmen, Ulyukayev said: “We are delighted that the investment activity of German companies in Russia have not stopped.” “She may be, was not as rapid as in previous years, but in 2015 already better than 2014. We again have the increase in direct investments,” the Minister added.