Moscow. November 13. The Bank of Russia sees the signals change the structure of the economy, including a more stable situation in the exporting and import-substituting industries, said the head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina, speaking in the state Duma.
“Along with the adaptation of the balance of payments, we see also signals changes in the structure of the economy, the first signs that the exporting and import-substituting sectors the situation is starting to look a little more steadily,” said she. In the part of the balance of payments the Central Bank observes the growth of the balance on the current account and reduction of capital flight for reasons not related to the payment of debts.
According to Nabiullina, the volatility of the ruble creates risks to financial stability in Russia. She noted that high volatility, which is now decreasing, was observed under the influence of external factors.
The head of the Central Bank believes that excessive credit expansion can create large risks for development in the future (this confirms the experience of other countries), and too rapid a reduction in interest rates now could result in their growth in the future. “The task for the next period – to prevent the increased in the beginning of this year inflation has become a threat to economic growth in the future. Thus the special importance of long-term market interest rates for the economy. They will be reduced only in the case when the reduced inflation, inflationary expectations,” Nabiullina said.
“It is important to consolidate this trend to lower long-term interest rates. Taking a decision on interest rates, we must take into account current and future risks for economic growth and for inflation. Too quickly decreasing your bet now, can we get a risk that rates will start to rise in the future. We must not let this happen”, she added.
According to her, Russian banks for 10 months of increased lending to 7.1%, excluding the currency revaluation – 2.2%. The delay grows, but this trend fades out. In October the proportion of overdue debt on loans to non-financial organizations increased by 0.1 percentage points and amounted to 5.9%, retail loans saw an increase from 8.0% to 8.1%.
The Governor of the Bank of Russia also reported that the payment of top-30 companies on external debt in ground quarter of next year will amount to $6 billion, and in the fourth quarter of this year – $8 billion in Payments on an external debt in 2016 will be of a uniform character. “The volume of corporate payments on foreign debt in 2016 will be about 2 times less than in 2015”, – said Nabiullina.
She also noted that, in General, Russian external debt with of 2014 fell dramatically, by almost 30%. If at the beginning of 2014 the entire external debt stood at $729 billion, currently is $522 billion.