Moscow. November 13. The state Duma meeting on Friday took note of the guidelines for the single state monetary policy in 2016 and 2017-2018. The document describes three scenarios of macroeconomic development for the years 2016-2018, depending on oil prices.
The baseline scenario assumes continuation of the average annual oil prices at $50 a barrel in the next three years. A more optimistic scenario envisages a gradual recovery in oil prices to $70-80 per barrel in 2018. Also considered stress scenario in which oil prices for the past three years remain below $40.
These scenarios differ in the dynamics of GDP, inflation and other economic indicators. Thus, the base scenario foresees a decline of GDP in 2016 and 0.5-1% and inflation of 5.5-6.5 per cent. The optimistic scenario assumes that GDP may remain at the same level or grow by 0.5%, inflation is also laid at 5.5-6.5 per cent. In 2017-2018, both scenarios predict inflation at level of 4%.
While the 2015 inflation forecast is 12%.
“When implementing any of these scenarios, the Bank of Russia will continue to conduct operations on granting to credit institutions of foreign currency on a revolving basis to the extent required to ensure uninterrupted payments on external debt”, – stated in the document.
The document also notes that the Bank of Russia will make decisions quickly and flexibly, based on the objectives of reducing inflation, while avoiding excessive cooling of the economy and maintaining financial stability.
In the conclusion of the Duma committees on the basic directions of the OST States that deputies appreciate that the transition to the ruble free floating exchange rate regime, and also noted the expediency of the actions of the Central Bank to increase international reserves in spring-summer of 2015. In this case, according to deputies, is not necessarily hard commitments to achieve the target level of reserves of $500 billion.