The dollar by 15:03 GMT decreased by 0.83 ruble – to 65,95 of the rouble, the Euro rate – 0.93 ruble to ruble 70,85. The price of a barrel of Brent in rubles fixed below the key level of 3 thousand rubles.
MOSCOW, 16 Nov. Dmitry Mayorov. The ruble on Monday afternoon steadily grew on the back of high interest rates on ruble and low demand for foreign currency liquidity.
However, the cost of Brent crude oil is fixed below 3 thousand rubles, which is the overbought signal of the ruble, experts say.
The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 15:03 GMT decreased by 0.83 ruble — to 65,95 of the rouble, the Euro rate — 0.93 ruble to 70,85 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.
Rates to support the ruble
The ruble against the dollar and the Euro during the first half of trading session of Monday has remained stable in spite of attempts by the oil price back to $ 45 dollars per barrel of Brent.
The price of black gold increases after Friday weekly data on the reduction in the number of working drilling rigs in the US for 4 pieces, or 0.51% to 767 units. In annual terms, this figure dropped to 1161 unit, or 60.2%, was estimated by the company Baker Hughes.
Support the rouble have high rouble rates remaining more than 0.5 percentage points above the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (11%). So, MosPrime overnight rate on Monday is equal to 11.70% APR.
In addition, the lack of demand for the currency shows the currency REPO auction for 28 days, at which the participants took only 86,1 million dollars from 1.3 billion limit.
“This may be due to the inertial effect of the inflow of foreign currency into the country in the previous couple of months to buy the OFZ-YING and other government securities in the expectation of a speedy reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank”, — says Evgeny Koshelev of ROSBANK.
The price of a barrel of Brent in rubles fixed below the key level of 3 thousand rubles, which is a negative signal for the ruble, since a strong ruble is suffering the budget, and the Finance Ministry, is likely to Express about the dissatisfaction, say market experts.
In particular, Mature ideas about the purchase of foreign currency by the office in the reserve at an oil price above 50 dollars per barrel, perhaps as a reference point will be used the mark of 3 thousand rubles per barrel and, accordingly, the purchase of foreign currency logical when you drop below it, said Koshelev of ROSBANK.
Forecasts and recommendations
Remains some interest in the Russian assets by non-residents, although not that active, in addition, naturally growing the sales of the exporters currency proceeds on the eve of the tax period, which supports the national currency, says Denis Davydov from Nordea Bank.
“And yet in the focus of the situation in the oil market, where it is impossible to exclude further drawdown. Uncomfortable the oil price in ruble terms, which also creates the preconditions for the weakening of the ruble. The dollar could strengthen, that will only add pressure on commodities and currencies. Short USD/RUB will remain 65-67 levels”, he added.
In Russia started the next tax period, and the largest volume of payments (VAT and met) have on 25 November, said Maxim Korovin of “VTB Capital”.
“However, the company is likely this week will increase sales of foreign exchange, in the short term will provide some support for the ruble. However, if in the next few weeks the price of Brent oil will test the minimum value of the current year, it can lead to further weakening of the ruble against the dollar,” he added.