Ulyukayev believes that the ruble will not make any contribution to inflation in 2016


MANILA, November 16. The Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev believes that the ruble will not make any contribution to inflation in 2016.

“We expect that there is no”, – he told reporters at the APEC summit.

According to the forecast of Ministry of economic development, real effective exchange rate of the ruble in 2015 will drop by 16.4% and 1.8% in 2016. The average annual exchange rate of the Russian currency by the end of 2015 will amount to 61 rubles per dollar. In 2016 it will rise to 63.3 rubles, in 2017 – will be reduced to 63.1 rubles, in 2018 – up to 62,5 rbl.

Additional Capitalization Of VEB

According to the speaker, a question for the recapitalization of Vnesheconombank (VEB) is obvious, this problem needs to be solved.

The Minister is confident that a recapitalization of VEB will be substantial, but probably less than 1.5 trillion rubles.

“The figure is not the end. There are different options because on the VEB balance sheet is liquid assets such as ADR “Gazprom”, for example. It is also within the perimeter of these discussions is. Therefore, the figure may be revised slightly downwards, but in General it will be very great in any case”, – he said, answering the question, to what extent can be capitalize on the web.

Ulyukayev also said that a decision on additional capitalization of VEB will be finalized within a week. “We have several options. We have not yet reached a final result, we have during the week to Refine the agenda so that you can report to the Prime Minister. He is also the Chairman of the Supervisory Board of VEB,” – said the Minister.

Discussed different options, including the transfer of problem assets to the Bank balance of the state, the creation of a special Fund, which could attract funds from the market under state guarantees, etc., explained the speaker. The sale of shares of the Bank in “Gazprom” considered among the options of raising funds for the Corporation, also pointed out the Minister.

According to the head of the MAYOR, the role of the Bank of Russia in supervising the activities of the VEB needs to be strengthened. “Of course we are talking about what might be the role of the Bank of Russia should increase, to a large extent directly so that he could audit the current balance of the VEB in order to give him some quality right credit decisions,” he said.

As noted, in his turn, first Deputy Finance Minister Tatyana Nesterenko, in the amendments to the budget-2015 pledged 1.5 trillion rubles for the recapitalization of the Bank. According to her, the government is considering the redemption of debt of VEB as one of the options of assistance to the Bank. The obligations of the Bank in 2016 on payment of external debts are in rubles to 200 billion rubles, also said she.

The payment of dividends

A new mechanism for dividend payments by state-owned companies may begin to apply to profit in 2015, it will limit the possibility of minimizing liabilities for dividends, Ulyukayev said.

“Maybe next year”, – said the Minister, confirming that it will touch profit in 2015.

Ulyukayev also said that when calculating the dividends of natural monopolies may be considered income, as calculated by the Federal Antimonopoly service for the purposes of tariffs. “(It is necessary) in order to limit the possibility of minimising obligations on dividends,” – said the Minister.

He said that the Ministry of economic development has prepared a draft Executive order of the government of the Russian Federation, according to which dividends of state companies /25%/ to be of the maximum profit under RAS or IFRS. In addition, it is proposed to exclude the possibility for some companies to pay dividends less than 25% by a special government decision.

While the speaker noted that incentives for oil companies to pay dividends would not be provided. “Better to fulfill requirements for dividends, and if necessary to receive this subsidy. This is a more transparent procedure than the preferential dividends”, – he said.

According to the Minister, all the major state-owned companies is already considered profit under IFRS. “Only RAS consider only companies with 100-percentage state participation. They also need to gradually translate to modern standards”, – said Ulyukayev.

Indexation of gas tariffs

Speaking on the indexation of gas tariffs, the Minister said that the issue is still not agreed upon. “On gas, we are still at the stage of DOUGLASVILLE. Our proposal is known to 2%”, – he said.

Ulyukayev expects that this figure will not be changed in any direction. “This and the price of gas, and transportation”, – he explained.

Indexation of freight tariffs

According to Ulyukaev, the government has not yet made a final decision on the indexation of railway freight tariffs, however high the probability that in 2016 the tariffs will be increased by 9%. “We have issued papers on this subject, but I think that we have a high degree of common understanding exists. I think that 9% is practically a done deal,” he said.

For the purposes of macroeconomic forecasting Ministry of economic development has laid a 9-percentage indexation of tariffs, the regulatory decision must be made soon.

In the forecast the MAYOR, which was submitted to the state Duma, says that in 2016 the increase will be determined taking into account the lack of budgetary subsidies, to further optimize our costs and will be 9%”. The growth of tariffs for 2017-2018 for cargo transportation is even more discreet: the indexation of prices for this type of transportation will be close to the target reference point on inflation for the respective year.

In this regard, will require additional measures to reduce administrative costs and improved purchasing. In this case, the provision of public subsidies for financial equilibrium of the company will not be required. Will be revised with development priorities of the railway infrastructure, the aim of which is to adapt the investment program of JSC “RZD” to changed conditions in the Russian economy, the document says.