The dollar increased to 65,53 of the ruble, the Euro grew to 69,93 ruble. With the upcoming peak of the tax period the demand for dollars remains high.
MOSCOW, Nov 17. Dmitry Mayorov. The ruble on Tuesday afternoon has been adjusted slightly down after strong growth on the eve of 1.5-2 rubles to the major reserve currencies.
Weak dynamics of oil market partially offset by market hopes to reduce the geopolitical risks in the expected cooperation of Russia with the West in the fight against terrorism, experts say.
The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 15.23 GMT increased by 0.26 ruble — to 65,53 of the rouble, the Euro rate — by 0.18 ruble — to 69,93 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.
The ruble against the dollar and the Euro during the first half of the trading session on Tuesday ranged slightly below the levels of the previous closing.
Strong growth on the eve of the ruble (the dollar and the Euro decreased by 1.5-2 rubles) has pushed market players on Tuesday to lock in profits from the growth of the Russian currency. Weak market dynamics of oil hovering near $ 44 per barrel of Brent, support the correction of the ruble.
However, with the upcoming peak of the tax period the demand for dollars remains high, and this restrains the growth of the dollar and the Euro against the ruble.
Verbal intervention is also slightly supported the ruble. Inflation expectations in Russia remain high, said first Deputy Chairman of the CBR Ksenia Yudaeva. This indicates a high probability of maintaining a high key rate of the Central Bank, which is positive for the ruble, analysts say.
Finally, a definite positive for the ruble contain aspirations to improve Russia’s relations with the West on the background of the joint fight against terrorism. The constructive proposals of the Russian Federation on debt of Ukraine and the willingness not to declare her default can also improve Russian-Western relations, appraised by the experts.
In the end, the price of a barrel of Brent in rubles confidently held below the key level — 3 thousand rubles, which is a negative signal for the ruble, since a strong ruble is suffering the budget, and the Finance Ministry, is likely to Express about the dissatisfaction, say market experts.
Expected in December growth revenues roubles from the budget creates a certain pressure on the ruble. Expenditure from contingency Fund the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation in December will be significantly higher than in October and November, said Tuesday the Deputy Minister of Finance Maxim Oreshkin.
In addition, in December is expected to increase repayments on foreign currency debt, which will also keep pressure on the ruble, traders say.
Forecasts and recommendations
Ruble gains support amid rising demand for ruble liquidity on the part of the exporting companies who are preparing for tax payments (the peak of which falls on 25th November), says Irina Rogova of the Forex Club group of companies.
“However, to say that strengthening of ruble will be for the long term, probably not worth it. Until then, while the oil will not take the course to strengthen the stable growth of the Russian currency can be expected”, — she said.
The decline of oil is alarming, but the negative was not developed, and the pole to this more active exporters in the tax period, the ruble receives an additional portion of immunity to external stimuli, says Denis Davydov from Nordea Bank.
Most likely, the dollar in the short term will remain in the previously designated range: 65-67 rubles, he added.