The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 19.39 GMT decreased by 0,32 ruble – to of 64.95 rouble, the Euro rate is 0.61 ruble – to 69,17 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.
MOSCOW, Nov 17. Dmitry Mayorov. The ruble against the dollar and Euro on Tuesday night came in confident plus, despite the weak dynamics of oil market
Increased demand for ruble liquidity crushed at the moment the Euro below 69 rubles for the first time in a week, and the dollar is below 65 rubles.
The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 19.39 GMT decreased by 0,32 ruble — to of 64.95 rouble, the Euro rate is 0.61 ruble — to 69,17 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.
The ruble demonstrates the resilience
The ruble against the dollar during the Tuesday session slightly adjusted down after a notable growth recently, has attained to the closure of 1.5-2 rubles against the major reserve currencies.
Moderately negative for the ruble was supported by a background of weak dynamics of the oil market. The cost of Brent fell Tuesday in the area of 43.5 per dollar.
The continued oversupply in the oil market is not yet compensated by an increase in geopolitical risks after the terrorist attacks in Paris.
However, the ruble recently got rid of the oil market and live their lives. Support is provided by the low demand for dollar liquidity, and the growth of demand for rouble liquidity on the threshold of the tax period.
Rate MosPrime overnight has approached the record high level over the last few weeks 12% per annum.
A definite positive for the ruble contain aspirations to improve Russia’s relations with the West on the background of the joint fight against terrorism. The constructive proposals of the Russian Federation on debt of Ukraine and the willingness not to declare her default can also improve Russian-Western relations, appraised by the experts.
Against this background, in the evening, the ruble lost more ground against other major reserve currencies. The Euro fell below 69 rubles for the first time in a week, the dollar was stuck below 65 rubles.
As a result, the price of Brent crude has dropped below 2.9 thousand rubles, which was not mentioned for several years. Overbought price of oil discourages participants in the foreign exchange market as many started in your game of the landmark in 3-3,2 thousand rubles per barrel. Now this range fell below that however, apparently, not very happy the Ministry of Finance, as budget revenues depend on ruble-denominated oil prices, experts say.
Forecasts and recommendations
The Bank of Russia continues to restrict credit institutions in ruble liquidity, he offered at the REPO auction on Tuesday for just 220 billion rubles more than a week earlier, said Yuri Kravchenko from IK “Veles Capital”. “A lot of interest was felt to RUB and at another Deposit auction of the Federal Treasury, where demand exceeded the volume limit (50 billion rubles) three times”, — he added.
“Despite significant support from the starting of the tax period and limited supply of ruble liquidity from the Central Bank, the ruble looks overbought at the current decline in oil prices, and after the sale by exporters of all currency earnings may be followed by fast correction of the dollar in the range of 67-68 rubles”, — said Kravchenko.
There is a factor that allows for some stability of rouble — as follows from the reporting “Rosneft”, she received from the Chinese company to 15 billion dollars as an advance payment under long-term contracts for oil supplies, said Alexei Mikheyev from the Bank “VTB 24”.
“It’s radical to rectify the capital account for Russia at the end of the year. However, for the budget in of oil for 2860 rubles still good enough. Indefinitely ignore the fall in oil prices is unlikely. At some point the market should start to make up for the fall in oil prices the fall of the ruble, we believe that the breakdown of the post-crisis lows in oil prices throws a ruble from the frontiers, which he had dug in recent days,” said Mikheev.