The stock market hit a new high of the year on February 13 for the expectation of easing sanctions


Moscow. November 18. The Russian stock market on Wednesday hit a new high of the MICEX index at closing since mid-February on expectations of imminent easing or lifting of anti-Russian sanctions, and amid the rebound of oil prices up.

Following the results of trading the MICEX index amounted to 1810,48 points (+1,3%, the maximum session – 1820,34 points) – a maximum closure of the session 13 February; the RTS index rose to 876,56 points (+1,6%), ruble prices of most blue chips on “the Moscow stock exchange” has grown in the range of 3.3%.

The dollar fell to 65,06 roubles (-9 kopeks).

Increased rouble value of the shares of VTB (+0,2%), Gazprom (+3.3 per cent), “Gazprom oil” (+1,7%), LUKOIL (+0,1%), “Mobile TeleSystems” (+2,4%), NOVATEK (+1,1%), “Norilsk Nickel” (+3%), “Polyus Gold” (+1,1%), Rosneft (MOEX: ROSN) (+2,5%), Rostelecom (+3%), Sberbank of Russia (+1,5%), “Surgutneftegaz” (+2,1%), “Tatneft” (+0,7%), “FGC UES” (+2,9%).

Sank the shares of “Magnet” (-0,3%), “prefs” of “Surgutneftegaz” (-1,2%) and “Tatneft” (-0,5%).

Futures for Brent oil for January at 18:50 cost $43,95 per barrel (+0.9% and -2,2% on Tuesday), the price of WTI was $42,01 per barrel (+0,7%).

According to the Deputy head of Department of the analysis of share market IK “Veles the Capital” Vasily Tanurkov, signs of a slight thaw in relations with the West, encourage foreign investors to buy Russian assets.

Oil during the day price rose on data from the American petroleum Institute (API) about reduction of stocks in USA. In addition, the dollar weakened against global currencies in anticipation of the release of the minutes of the fed meeting and amid evidence of a sharp decline in the number of new buildings in the U.S., which has supported commodity prices.

The growth leaders among blue chips were the shares of “Rostelecom” on the news about the change in dividend policy. In accordance with the new policy the company intends to allocate for dividend payment 75% of free cash flow, which will lead to a marked increase in the amount of dividends, thereby increasing the attractiveness of shares from the point of view of minority investors.

According to an analyst of management company “Raiffeisen Capital” Sofia Kirsanova, an Alliance of global leaders (USA, France, Germany and Russia) in the fight against terrorism has caused speculation about the potential lifting of sanctions against Russia. Statement on the possible revision of the sovereign credit rating of the Russian Federation by the international Agency S&P has acted almost as a confirmation of such assumptions.

Speculation has been fueled by interest in all assets of the domestic market, primarily to securities of the banking sector, which has experienced the impact of sanctions to a greater extent (rise in Deposit base in the absence of growth of interest income and the deterioration in the quality of the loan portfolio caused a decline in net interest margin and the increase in cost of risk).

Shares of Rostelecom surged on news that the company plans to pay out 75% of free cash flow as dividends for 2015-2017. The current dividend policy assumes a payout of 20% of net profit under IFRS.

Action “Mobile TeleSystems” rose after reporting strong yesterday and on the news about the lack of plans for the establishment of reserves in Uzbekistan, which many investors expected to see after the incident with VimpelCom.

According to the Deputy Director General for investment analysis of IR “Zerich capital Management” Andrei Vernikov, the MICEX index was fixed above 1800 points and the end of the year he will probably perform growth target of 1,850 points.

The proposal of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Ukraine’s public debt, made at the G20 summit, as well as a number of meetings, eased the situation on the financial markets. Many American publications write about the need to form a military coalition with Russia to combat ISIS in Syria, and almost none of the Western politicians said that the Russian air force strike blows exclusively by opponents of the current President of Syria.

A hope for the easing of Western sanctions, the problem of Ukraine went to the tenth plan.

However, for long-term optimism needs the increase of oil prices or the positive dynamics of emerging markets. With oil prices not yet fused. The major oil organization is the International energy Agency (IEA), OPEC predict that next year a significant reduction in oil. On Wednesday supporting the oil factor was the statement of the PRC President XI Jinping that China is committed to overhauling the economy and improving the lives of the people: “China’s Economy has strong stability, large capacity and wide possibilities for maneuver”.

Many Russian stocks, grew up in the last days, turned out to be overheated (for example, the paper “Mosberg”). On the chart of the MICEX index have an intermediate level of resistance of 1820 points, and it may happen the intermediate correction before the index will reach 1850 points. In order to correct at least will be the mark of 1780 points. Sberbank has achieved the goal of growth 105 rubles, the shares of “Gazprom” actively grow. But, as a rule, after growing shares of Gazprom, on the market there is a correction, said Vernikov.

According to the senior analyst of Bank “Formation” (MOEX: OBRB) Vitaly Mangos, shopping at the Russian market is due to objective reasons. Expectations of easing of foreign sanctions against Russia remain wishes and guesses, but not reality. By and large, there is unfounded optimism, which is supported by improved technical picture in the major indexes and in individual stocks. Apparently, Christmas rally started a few weeks earlier calendar period. Experience shows that the Russian market can’t move without regard to external factors more than two or three days. Therefore, the stability of the established growth remains in question.

The paper “Mobile TeleSystems” are still emerging on Monday a corrective technical bounce. In addition, there are shopping upon the publication of mixed financial and operating results of the company for the third quarter of 2015. Reporting MTS was better than the average expectations. The increase in consolidated quarterly revenue by 7.4% in rubles appears to be less significant in comparison with the drop in consolidated net profit by 6.6% compared to the third quarter of last year and by 15.7% compared to the previous quarter. In the end, dividends are calculated based on the net profit and not from revenues of the Issuer.

The analyst of the company “ALOR broker” Alexey Antonov also believes that the main event of the day will be the publication of the protocols of the fed. Views on a rate hike at the next fed meeting was divided, and in the evening on Wednesday the market will get the real picture regarding this issue. Seven years of a soft credit policy the fed can come to an end. Meanwhile, commodity markets continue to decline, gold has made new lows in 2015, oil is trading near the low of 2009, as many industrial metals.

You must wait for the reaction of markets to the publication of the minutes of the fed meeting and depending on it to decide on the formation of investment ideas for the next 2 weeks.

Pay attention to actions “Rosneft”, which once again approached the resistance level of 280 rubles – a move abroad will open up good prospects to start a serious movement above.

Analysts IK “Okay broker” note that the mid-target of the upward movement of the MICEX index acts as a mark of 1850 points. However, the likelihood that quotes will be able to pass the rest of the way without another wave of correction in light of recent events, decreased. In this regard, the retention levels achieved could provide a good opportunity for partial unloading long positions. If we consider the growth occurred in separate actions, from a technical point of view many papers from among the most liquid already at the resistance, performing basic growth targets.

The strengthening of the ruble continues, despite continued weakness in oil prices. Without doubt, this situation is largely supported by the continuation and intensification of the military operation in Syria, which the territories controlled by ISIS, continues the illegal oil trade.

Grew the telecoms sector due to the positive revaluation of the market value of MTS shares. Released on the eve of statements of the operator reassured investors in light of the increasing activity on the territory of Russia, which was reflected in the results of revenue and net profit.

In “the second echelon” at “Moscow exchange” on Wednesday in the growth of the lead paper “Pharmacy chain 36,6″(+7,4%), “Novorossiysk sea trading port” (+4,5%), Aeroflot (+4%), “OGK-2” (+3,8%), “Severstal”(+3,5%), Yandex(+3,3%), Polymetal (+3.2 per cent).

Fell paper Polyus Gold (-2,5%), “inter RAO UES” (-1,6%), RUSAL (-1,5% -1,5% DDR), “PIK Group” (-1,3%), PhosAgro (-1,1%), “Masuri” (-1%).

The total volume of shares traded on the main market of the Moscow stock exchange for the day amounted 44,452 billion rubles (14,143 billion roubles had on ordinary shares of Sberbank).