Economists speculated about what Putin will say in his message

Economists speculated about what Putin will say in his message


President, first of all, let’s turn to the economic situation in the country, said chief researcher of the Institute of Economics Russian Academy of Sciences Boris Heifetz. The President of the RF CCI Sergey Katyrin hopes that Putin in his speech will cover the subject of support of small and medium-sized businesses.

MOSCOW, 2 Dec. Difficult situation in the Russian economy in the context of ongoing Western sanctions and relatively low oil prices, will be one of the topics that the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin will address the Federal Assembly, believe the experts interviewed.

Putin on 3 December address to the Federal Assembly. Message from the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly software is a political and legal document that expresses the vision of the head of the state strategic directions of development of Russia on immediate prospects. It includes the political, economic, ideological nature, and concrete proposals for legislative work of the Parliament.

The state of the economy

Chief researcher, Institute of Economics, RAS Boris Heifetz believes that the President, in the first place, let’s turn to the economic situation in the country. “First, the President should highlight and develop a thesis about where the economy is, and will continue development in the short term,” he said.

“Secondly, of course, the economic problems that arose as a result of external and internal factors. The outer is first of all, the continued sanctions, continued low oil prices and related exchange rate policy of the Central Bank. Internal related, of course, with rising prices and taxes. I think these issues need to be addressed,” says Heifetz.

The President Trading-industrial chamber of the Russian Federation Sergey Katyrin hopes that Putin in his speech will cover the subject of support of small and medium-sized businesses. He noted the importance of this issue, as “last year for small and medium business was held in difficult conditions of economic crisis and sanctions restrictions.”

Agree with him and head of the research laboratory of corporate strategies and behaviour of firms Institute of applied economic research (IPEA), Ranepa Vera Barinova. She hoped that the President in his address will also touch on the subject of SMEs and strategic planning.

“Likely to be affected by the issues of strategic planning. In particular, development of small and medium business in Russia as it is now already hard at work on the development Strategy of small and medium enterprises by 2030 is quite a significant document,” she said.

According to the chief economist “PF Capital” Yevgeny Nadorshin, now is the time to return to the issue of the “unfreezing” of pension savings. According to the expert, the pension savings are now one of the few sources of “long money” in economy of the Russian Federation. “The closure of foreign markets has actually deprived us long-term money. Long money has deprived us of the opportunity to develop long-term projects”, — said the Agency interlocutor.

Import substitution and external factors

The CCI President also expressed the hope that Putin will return to the issue of import substitution. “Despite the success of import substitution in agriculture, our dependence in part of the machine tool industry, oil and gas equipment, engineering products, microelectronics and other industries is very great — in some sectors it reaches 80-90%”, — said Katyrin. He also believes that Putin “will mention about the substitution of services”.

The President in rapidly changing economic situation in the world will not sit by and question the conclusion of international alliances and partnerships in this area, suggested Heifetz from the Institute of Economics, RAS.

“The external factor, of course, it is also the conclusion of an agreement on a TRANS-Pacific partnership, which could significantly change the balance of power not only in Asia, the Pacific, and the world. There are projects of China for the establishment of a free trade area, as well as the project of the New silk road,” he said.

Heifetz suggested that, “perhaps this background will be announced the desire to expand cooperation within the EEU”. “Maybe something will be said about cooperation within BRICS. But I think these issues can take a smaller portion than political issues,” he concluded.