The Russians grimly assessed the prospects of the Russian economy


Moscow. December 3. Inflation expectations of Russians in November increased, at the same time increased the number of people waiting for the weakening of the ruble, declining standard of living, production and growth of unemployment and corruption, according to a survey conducted monthly by the order of the Bank of Russia.

Qualitative assessment of inflation expectations for the month ahead and the next 12 months deteriorated. In response to the question about inflation in 2016 increase in the proportion of respondents expecting acceleration of growth of prices (by 5 percentage points to 19%). This is the highest reading since February 2015.

In answer to the question concerning inflation expectations for the next month increased the share of those expecting prices will increase very significantly (by 5 percentage points to 25%). The number of those who believes that prices will rise moderately or slightly, almost unchanged.

In November there were two important changes in the distribution of answers to the question about the possible causes of future price rises. First, among people who believe that the price growth will be very strong or moderately, significantly increased the number of those who attributes this to a seasonal factor, i.e. the approach of the New year. Secondly, for the first time there is a new variant of the answer relating to current events in the country: about 2% of respondents believe that prices will rise due to the fact that the tax on transportation of cargoes on Federal highways.

Significantly more citizens began to expect the depreciation of the rouble in annual term. So, 35% of respondents believe that next year the ruble against the dollar will decrease. According to the materials of the previous surveys, this is the maximum value since October 2014.

“Substantial changes recorded in the expectations of economic development of the country in the coming years, with these expectations, unlike in previous months, have become more negative. So, more people began to believe that in Russia in the coming year will decrease the standard of living of the population and the level of production or increase the unemployment rate and the level of corruption. Noticeable increase in the number of those who believe that the next 12 months will be for the economy bad time”, – stated in the materials of the Central Bank.

More negative was the assessment of the prospects of the economy in the five-year term; the expectations index dropped from 97 to 92 points, and the total CSI (consumer sentiment index) is from 85 to 82 points.

In November, significantly increased the share of citizens who resort to “restrictive” strategy of behavior in conditions of inflation, such as purchasing cheaper products and goods, refusal of certain foods, goods, services, entertainment (the previous month was observed an opposite trend).