Ruble plunged to a new three-month low

Ruble plunged to a new three-month low


The dollar calculations “tomorrow” in the middle of the day increased by 0.83 ruble – to of 68.96 roubles, the Euro rate by 0.41 ruble – to 74,47 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.

MOSCOW, 7 Dec. Dmitry Mayorov. The ruble on Monday afternoon lost position, falling to three month lows against the dollar in the area is 69.

Weak dynamics of oil market remains vague after the defining decisions of OPEC on production quotas.

The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 15.22 MSK increased by 0.83 ruble — to of 68.96 rubles (grew on Monday to 69,065 ruble), Euro — 0.41 ruble — to 74,47 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.

Oil does not give chances ruble

The ruble against the dollar and the Euro during the day on Monday slightly lower on a weak market dynamics of oil stabilized near lows since August – about 42.5 dollars per barrel of Brent.

Bidders continue to react to the OPEC decision. The cartel’s representatives at a meeting on Friday in Vienna once again retained the quota for oil production at 30 million barrels per day, despite the low prices and the overabundance of raw materials on the market. Thus the organization decided to keep and the level of actual production that exceeds the quota by 1.5 million barrels. Officially, the quota for 2011 is 30 million barrels a day but OPEC actually regularly exceeds it.

Rouble rate declined slightly with the beginning of a new month and remain about 11.5% per annum on overnight credit MosPrime.

Thus, the situation with ruble liquidity unstressed, and given the traditional December growth of expenditure from the budget up to the end of the year the demand for rubles and may not grow. On December banks will have to pay loans and taxes of about $ 22 billion.

In the end, the afternoon, the dollar surged to three-month highs in the area is 69 rubles.

However, the price of oil remains below 3 thousand, that speaks about the overvalue of the Russian currency against the oil.

Forecasts and recommendations

In addition to the weak market condition of oil, the ruble remains negative under the influence of the tense situation in the geopolitical arena, says Irina Rogova of the Forex Club group of companies.

“Most likely, you should not rely on the earlier lifting of Western sanctions. Moreover, one cannot completely exclude the possibility of their expansion. Against this background, it is not excluded that the pair USD/RUB started and will continue to fight for the resistance growth in 69”, — she said.

An important event for the local foreign exchange market can be a meeting of the Bank of Russia key rate on December 11, analysts at ROSBANK. “In view of the escalation of external risks we revised our script, and we believe that the key rate will be kept at the level of 11.0% at least in one sitting.

“For the ruble it will be a neutral solution, but an important aspect will be the tonality of rhetoric of the regulator. The determination of the regulator to ease its policy at the next meeting as slowing inflation, announced in October, has provided significant support to ruble-denominated assets. Therefore, in the case of withdrawal of the Bank from the previous formulation, the pressure on the ruble may rise because of fears of closing short positions in bonds and shares,” I believe in ROSBANK.