MOSCOW, December 7. The volatility of oil prices will decline from the second half of 2016, oil prices will return to positive dynamics. The Minister of economic development of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev said on the air of TV channel “Russia 24”.
© Sergey Bobylev/TASS
Ulyukayev: the Russian economy entered a long streak of low oil prices
“I think that the oil price will change. So say many financial analysts who suggest that two to three quarter’s going to be such high volatility. Since the second half of next year, with a high probability that oil prices will return to a positive trend with less volatility. And overall ,I think the forecast of 50 (dollars per barrel) a year quite reasonable”, – he said.
On 4 December the state Duma adopted the law on the Federal budget for 2016. Next year, the government draws up the annual budget, not reviewing the forecast 2017-2018. Also for next year cancelled the effect of budget rules, according to which the maximum level of expenditure shall be determined based on the average over the previous three years the price of oil. The oil price in the budget for 2016 laid out in the $50 per barrel.
The decline of investments in fixed capital not more than 7%
The decline of investments in fixed capital by the end of 2015 will not be more than 7%, which is better than the current forecast of Ministry of economic development (9.9 percent), said the Minister of economic development.
“We forecast – (decrease) 9.9%, and is likely to be no more than 7%. Again, important not the figure of 7% is also bad, but the fact that suddenly in the third quarter has shown the investment potential,” he said.
© ITAR-TASS/Mikhail Metzel
The speaker: the recession in the Russian economy ended
According to the Minister, this is “a sectoral explanation”: the largest investments were in the energy sector. “There is a good financial result. I can not yet assess how stable the investment motivation. But in any case that investors implement them, which was really cool,” added the speaker.
While previously it was assumed that first, restored the consumer demand and then investment, actually on the contrary, he continued.
“This is a very interesting phenomenon. And for me, touch wood, is a source of some optimism. Because household consumption growth is income growth and growth in cost, which narrows the financial base of the business. And investment growth means continuous development. We have to go through a phase of investment growth. And that suddenly started to occur in September-October, with estimates of investment – unexpectedly”, – stressed the head of the MAYOR of the Russian Federation.
According to monthly monitoring of the MAYOR, investment in fixed capital in Russia with clearing of the seasonal factor in October for the first time since the beginning of the year came in plus and increased by 0.4%.