The ruble decreases the Euro on the background of the struggle oil for $40

The ruble decreases the Euro on the background of the struggle oil for $40


Rурс dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 20.20 UTC + 69,36 was reduced to ruble. The Euro grew up to 76,19 ruble.

MOSCOW, 9 Dec. Dmitry Mayorov. The ruble exchange rate against the Euro decreased in the evening on the background of weak dynamics of the oil market, again testing the psychologically important level of 40 dollars per barrel of Brent.

The dollar stabilized near the previous closing levels amid weak dynamics of the American currency against the Euro on Forex.

The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 20.20 Moscow time has decreased on 0,04 ruble — to 69,36 ruble. The Euro grew by 0.46 ruble — to 76,19 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.

Oil is not haunted

The ruble against the Euro during the trading environment remained under pressure amid strong dynamics of the European currency on Forex, where it is targeting a 1.1 dollar.

On the background of attempts oil to rebound up from the key level of $ 40 American currency showed the decline in the ruble.

Thus, players in the internal currency market has become accustomed to the new price levels after the upgrade the “black gold” multi-year lows.

The oil market remains highly volatile. So, after the release of weekly data about unexpected reduction of stocks of fuel in the US by 3.6 million barrels (with a forecast growth 0,252 million barrels), the rouble received support from the jump in oil prices up to the area 41.5 per dollar.

But then, apparently, some major player has decided to take advantage of high price levels and sold a large amount of oil futures that pushed prices below $ 40. Against this background, the ruble again went down against the bi-currency basket (0.45 euros and 0.55 dollar), but mainly due to the growth of the Euro, the dollar remained in the red.

Against the background of increased demand for ruble liquidity, the price of oil in rubles has remained low – less than 2,8 thousand rubles, which indicates overbought price of “black gold”.

Forecasts and recommendations

Despite the traditionally quiet start to the month, in the domestic market remains in the increased demand for ruble liquidity and high interest rates: the shortage of funds by channel, the auction REPO with the Central Bank banks are forced to compensate by increasing liquidity through more expensive instruments, debt which is close to annual highs, says Yuri Kravchenko from IK “Veles Capital”.

“However, the situation on the oil market remains extremely alarming, and the excitement of investors in anticipation of the next fed meeting only increases that together deprive the ruble of any support from liquidity shortages in the domestic market,” he said.

The oil market showed round a mark 40 dollars per barrel Brent, and there is every reason to expect continued growth, at least within the correction from the fall from 54 to 40 dollars per barrel, estimates Alexei Mikheyev from the Bank “VTB 24”.

“Continue to believe that 2016 will be marked by the growth of the ruble and the current levels are a great opportunity to get out of currency. Now keep the position in the currency is the same that betting on a further decline in oil prices. And if psychologically to represent a further fall of the ruble is quite easy, here’s a further drop in oil prices is limited to just common sense,” he says.

Regardless of oil, the ruble has all the chances to go in growth due to the fact that the period of high payments on external debt, all in the first half of the load on payments low. Foreign investors are likely to return to our markets, given that further ratings downgrades avoided (Moody’s revised the rating Outlook of the Russian Federation to stable from negative), assess the experts

“The $ 15 billion that he received from China the company “Rosneft”, too much. In the third quarter for the first time since 2010, Russia recorded a capital inflow. Most likely, given the exorbitant interest rate the CBR, the ruble will be in demand for carry trade operations in the next year. But if this all the positive impose the expected start of the fall of the dollar on forex, it turns out that the ruble is destined to increase,” — said Mikheyev.