Analysts predict fluctuations in the price of Brent crude oil is $ 33-50 per barrel. The dollar may be in the range of 65-100 rubles per dollar, the GDP will fall to 0-2,5%, and inflation can range of 6.7-18%.
MOSCOW, 11 Dec. Dmitry Mayorov. Analysts gave a wide range of forecast of the main macroeconomic indicators of the Russian Federation, but agreed that troubled times for the Russian economy is not over yet.
Projections for 2016 were made at the business Breakfast “Macroeconomic forecast for 2015. The best investment strategy”, organized by newspaper “Vedomosti”.
The range of expected fluctuations in the price of Brent crude oil is $ 33-50 per barrel. The dollar may be in the range of 65-100 rubles per dollar, the GDP will decrease by 0-2,5%, and inflation can range of 6.7-18%, experts say.
Oil – hopes for stabilization
A major factor in oil demand will be the expected recovery of the Chinese economy by 2017, says chief economist, “PF Capital” Evgenie Nadorshin. “Against this background, in 2017-2018 year is expected to the oil price in 50 dollars for barrel Brent. In 2016 this figure will be an average of 45 dollars per barrel”, — the expert added.
Pricing in the oil market will be determined by supply and demand in the global market. “No other factors, including the increase in production from the Saudis or the shale revolution will not so much influence on the dynamics of oil prices, as these market categories, according to the partner of company RusEnergy Mikhail Krutikhin.
“For the next two years is expected to price band on oil from the middle line at 45 dollars per barrel of Brent. Some analysts expect such guidance in the next 10 years. However, the active escalation of tensions in the middle East with the threat of losing the market to 30% of the oil produced in this region, abruptly will push the prices up,” — said the expert.
From the point of view of big waves in the world economy by reference to fluctuations in the cost of oil in 2016 will be the range 33-43 per barrel of Brent, says head of international capital markets at the Institute of world economy and international relations, Primakov named Yakov Mirkin.
District $ 50 per barrel Brent will remain more likely for speakers of black gold in 2016, said chief economist of the Russian office of Bank of America Merrill Lynch Vladimir Osakovsky.
The ruble is down
The ruble will remain at the mercy of the oil market, and in this respect at the current prices for oil and some adaptation of the Russian economy to the current market conditions we can expect the dollar at the level of 65 rubles, said Osakovsky from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
“Our forecast is for 70 rubles per dollar by the end of 2015 and 70 rubles at the end of the next. Only now it is growing, and next year it will be reduced in this area,” said Nadorshin from “PF Capital”.
In the first quarter of 2016 we can expect the dollar at 80 rubles, he added.
Given the continuing pressure on the Russian economy the dollar exchange rate in 2016 will fluctuate in the range of 75-90 rubles, says Mirkin.
“The level of 70 rubles per dollar will attract market players, however, it will not be sustainable,” — said the expert.
However, there are quite downbeat. Krutikhin from RusEnergy has not ruled out a jump to the dollar and 100 roubles next year.
The Euro against the dollar in Forex will be to focus on par, expect analysts. So, to achieve this level expect Krutikhin and Nadorshin from “PF Capital”.
There is a more pessimistic assessment of the prospects of the Euro. Thus, it is possible its drawdown in 2016 to 0.95 per dollar, according to estimates Osakovsky from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
The economy needs structural changes
Macroeconomic indicators will remain under pressure next year despite the low base and expectations of stabilization of the oil market, experts say.
The main problem of the Russian economy is not a balance of payments crisis, and structural problems, says Nadorshin from “PF Capital”.
“We are talking about close to the bottom and that things will rebound, however, as it was in 2009 does not happen, structural changes were needed to improve macroeconomic indicators,” he says.
“All profits indicate economic entities takes place only from the revaluation of the exchange rate, and real investment from any profit, it remains some reserve companies, it is possible that under future foreign currency payments. It’s good that the pressure on the ruble will be low in this case, however, there is no development, and this is bad”, — says the expert.
Against this background, Russia’s GDP in 2016 will be reduced by 2.5% with inflation at 9.2%, estimates Nadorshin. More optimistic about the economy Mirkin (reduction by 1-1. 5% of GDP and inflation of 12-18%) and Krutikhin (-1,3% of GDP and 12% inflation).
The most optimistic Osakovsky from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which predicts zero GDP and 6.7% inflation at the end of the year.