Moscow. December 11. The Deputy Minister of Finance Maxim Oreshkin sees no macroeconomic reasons for the ruble to 100 rubles per dollar in 2016.
“The reasons for the rate of 100 rubles per dollar from a macroeconomic point of view, especially in 2016. Speaking about the 2016 year, from a macroeconomic perspective, the economy as a whole from the point of view of the balance of payments adapted to the level of oil prices at around $40-50 per barrel, so we are seeing a stable market,” he said at a conference on the macroeconomic forecast for 2016 is organized by newspaper “Vedomosti”.
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Finance in the baseline scenario with oil priced at $50, the ruble exchange rate in 2016 will be higher than stated in the forecast of Ministry of economic development (63.3%) due to reduced capital outflow.
“The ruble may be much stronger in 2016 (the prediction in the Ministry of economic development), if we are talking about the outflow of capital at the same rate that we see in the second half. The Ministry of economic development laid a much greater outflow of capital next year than we expected,” said Oreshkin journalists. According to him, the outflow of capital from Russia in 2015 will not exceed $60 billion, while in 2016 this figure will be even less.
Overall, according to Oreshkin, the balance of payments of the country came to a new equilibrium, as indicated by the reaction of the ruble to the recent decline in oil prices to below $40. “The price of Urals crude from the morning traded at $36 per barrel, but the reaction of the ruble was quite restrained. Because the effect from the further decline in oil prices have offset the decrease in the outflow of capital,” he explained.
The Deputy Minister of Finance also has informed that does not see preconditions for significant growth of oil prices in the coming years. According to him, in the next seven years they will oscillate in the range of $40-60 per barrel. “The oil industry is changing structurally. It may well be that so much oil is, in principle, already do not need the global economy. We will live in another reality and under other conditions” – he explained his statement.
On Friday, oil prices continue to decline for the 6th day in a row on the background data about the increase in OPEC production in November. Such a long period of decline in the crude oil market it was not observed since March. Futures for Brent oil for February is $39,98 per barrel (-0.4 per cent), the price of WTI is $38,3 per barrel (-0.3% mom). In the course of trading Friday, oil prices made new lows since February 2009, Brent dropped below the $39.5 per barrel.