MOSCOW, December 11. The stock indices of the Russian Federation ended the day decrease. So, the MICEX index (MICEX) by the end of trading on the Moscow stock exchange fell by 0.73% to 1720,31 points, and RTS has fallen by 1.97% to 777,17 item.
The cost of futures for oil of mark Brent with delivery in January 2016 on the stock exchange ICE in London fell by 2.8% to $38,62 per barrel climbing above $39 per barrel for the first time since December 2008.
On oil prices continues to pressure the OPEC decision on quotas on oil production. So, at the end of 168-th meeting in Vienna on 4 December, the Ministers of oil of the OPEC has not taken a clear decision on production quotas because of the position of countries that are not members of the organization. Currently the volume of oil production by OPEC members is estimated to be 31-32 million barrels per day. The previous quota was 30 million barrels per day. As was stated by the Minister of oil of Iraq, the decision on quotas was not adopted because of the position of countries outside the cartel. In his opinion, to stabilize oil prices, all countries should set limits on production. Due to the lack of such restrictions has dropped the prices of oil in the world up to the present level, stated the Minister of oil of Iraq.
“This week the Russian site has been in a downtrend. The market continued to push the escalation of geopolitical tensions. A number of companies which have direct interests in Turkey, including, of course, Gazprom. Oil dropping below $40 per barrel, began to influence even the ruble prices of Russian securities. The Bank of Russia in Friday’s meeting left the key rate unchanged”, – said the expert of “BCS Express” Konstantin Karpov.
The CBR decided to keep key rate at 11% per annum. In this case the source of inflation risks, the CBR refers to the deterioration of external economic conditions against the background of a trend reduction in oil prices and slowdown of the PRC economy.
The MICEX index will not finish 2015 above the level of 1850 points, I’m sure the expert IK “ITinvest” Vasily Oleynik. “Before the fed, many will begin to take profits in advance. Some of them were already out. While the index found support near the strong 1700-1730 points. Plus or minus 2% for the next 6 days we will wait here. It is unlikely the major players will venture to increase the share of risky assets under the fed,” – said the expert.
The forecast of the IEA: oil price will return to $80 per barrel in 2020
The oil price in the international market will be back at $80 per barrel in 2020, then the tendency to a slight further increase. Such data are contained in the annual report of the International energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2015, which was presented in the Italian capital.
“We foresee price increases to $80 per barrel. But, of course, it cannot be excluded that the price of oil will remain at current low levels. And that would have implications for the oil market and the global economy. The IEA believes that keeping the price at $40-50 per barrel in the coming years, despite the benefits for consumers could be a problem,” said the Executive Director of the Agency, Fatih Birol.
According to him, the persistence of low oil prices will have a negative impact on the U.S., which will decrease the production of shale oil, will also hurt the economies of Brazil, African countries, Russia. Moreover, the persistence of low oil prices will reduce investment in the sector.
“When the cost of oil around $50 per barrel will continue to grow production and supply from the Middle East, which remains unstable region. Now 50% of all supplies come from the middle East countries, and this figure could reach 75 %, in 1970-ies”, – he added.
According to the forecast of experts of the Agency, by 2020 the demand will increase and will reach an average of nearly a million barrels a day. But since 2040, this growth will stop under the influence of rising prices, development of alternative energy sources, and reduce investment in unstream more than 20% in 2015.
The oil production of countries outside OPEC will peak by 2020 – 55 million barrels a day.
The supply growth will mainly come from Iraq and Iran even with certain risks to security of supply from these countries, according to the report.
The document also States that the global energy demand by 2040 will increase by 30%. And mainly, this growth is determined by China and India.
In China and Central Asia will increase demand for gas, making them the major consumers of this energy source. Whereas in the EU demand for gas will not exceed the peak rates recorded in 2010.